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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fyodor_ who wrote (25426)	1/17/2001 11:55:05 PM
From: Paul Ma	Respond to of 275872

i think someone calculated it to be 100 for athlons if 35 for k6

To: fyodor_ who wrote (25426)	1/17/2001 11:58:31 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Fyo, - 2M K6 - Duron and Athlon in fairly equal quantities. - ASP = $81 - 7M units sold Let me try. Let's say 2M K6 for $33 (to make it simple) gives us $66M. Subtracting 2M units and $60M revenue leaves us with 5M units and and $500M of revenue. So ASP of K7 line is $100. No more K6 for Q1 sounds good to me, and even with declining unit shipments, AMD can keep flat revenue, if the ASPs of K7 line stay the same. Ok, so let's say #Durons = #Athlons, and price of Athlon is 2x price of Duron, with p beinng the price. We get: 2.5M x p + 2.5M x p x 2 = 500M 7.5M x p = 500M p = 500 / 7.5 = $66.66, which is the price of Duron and $133.33 price of Athlon Sounds plausible to me. Athlon may be a tiny bit higher and Duron a tiny bit lower. Any comments, anything wrong with my assumptions? Joe