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To: rolatzi who wrote (59135)	1/18/2001 9:40:17 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Once the vast majority of people have new homes, they wont go out and buy more new homes. Like anything else this is a cycle. the housing cycle has toped and now will begin to reverse. I agree that the retrenchment wont be anything like Japan. The housing permit numbers were WAY down this AM and NY RE agents have already pointed to a slowdown in both rental and sales markets.

To: rolatzi who wrote (59135)	1/18/2001 11:27:59 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Our widespread use of mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit actually makes the wealth effect STRONGER here than in Japan. Whereas the Japanese would be unlikely to pull newfound equity out of their homes during a bubble, we are thrilled to pull all the cash we can out of our homes. Thank you for pointing out yet another way in which we are WORSE off than the Japanese before their real estate bubble burst. When our real estate bubble finally reverses course and the home equity loans stop, the impact on the economy will be huge. This means, of course, that the real estate bubble must also burst in order for the Mania to finally, truly die it's long-deserved death. BC