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Strategies & Market Trends : Your Worst Trading Enemy.. You -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ArnieC who wrote (91)	1/18/2001 5:58:43 PM
From: shawnwolff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 223

To: Re: Analysts This is just my opinion, but... I think it was Paul Harvey who did a test where he took 9 Wall St. analysts and a wind up Santa. The Santa he would start up and whatever stock it landed on, they chose. The Santa wound up winning every analyst hands down. What I am saying is, it isn't the analyst or what he thinks that moves the stock, it is the crowd's reaction to that analyst that will move the stock. So the trick, in my opinion, is not in following the analysts, but in following the reactions. Learn to identify reactions. Those are what you need to fear. And the thing about stocks, again in my opinion, is that they are only worth what the crowd thinks they are worth. The entire stock market is based on perception. A stock can have no earnings, as we saw during the internet hey-day, and still climb to astronomical proportions. A stock can have good fundamentals and still remain ignored. So good fundamentals are no guarantee that those fundamentals will be rewarded by the market. So I hold a philosophy of "playing what I see, not what I want to see". - Shawn

To: ArnieC who wrote (91)	1/18/2001 6:07:42 PM
From: shawnwolff	Respond to of 223

To: ArnieC Re: Selling into strength Another really good point you brought up, was to sell into strength. This is a philosophy I follow for long term and also for short-term. Today I cashed out of some longer term positions for just that reason. Yes, we may continue upward. But I still feel like it is a good idea, a good habit, good discipline, to take profits on the way up. We do not know what tomorrow will bring, and when profit-taking will enter. So when we have what we consider good profits, why do we tend to still hold in greed, hoping for more, and more, and more, until it finally falls? I find that the habit of exiting gracefully serves well over the long run. Sell while it is on its way up, be happy, and don't look back. Especially in short-term trades, where executions become an issue, it is important to sell while there are still buyers. I sacrifice that last bit of potential in return for my safety. - Shawn