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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BirdDog who wrote (38136)	1/18/2001 5:51:12 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Am I going crazy? Before you go crazy, you should note that JDS Uniphase and the recent share price and media attention is not alone in the field. Plenty of recent focus is due to the final stages of the JDSU and SDL merger. If you go through the following three segments to see what kind of 'attention' the prices have been getting for all of these companies off of their lows, you will see JDS Uniphase is in no way unique. Likewise, the media attention to many of these companies is also not a unique thing to JDS Uniphase - both positive media attention as well as negative media attention. We know there is always supply needing to be rotated from long as well as short positions. The uses of media is simply 'standard fare' in the process. In terms of gorilla gaming, I would file it in the 'noise' category. Study the entire surrogate group linked to optical component companies. JDS Uniphase Corning SDL Lucent Nortel Alcatel Optronics Oplink Avanex New Focus Bookham Finisar OCP Then take a look at the optical/eletrical networking and related sector: Cisco Systems Lucent Nortel Tellabs Ciena Motorola Foundry Networks ONI Systems Sonus Networks Corvis Avici Juniper Networks Sycamore Networks Extreme Neworks Brocade Communications Redback Networks Nokia Ericsson Alcatel And finally take a look at the IC/Communication chip companies Agilent Applied Micro Circuits Broadcom Conexant Infineon Intel Lucent PMC-Sierra TranSwitch TriQuint Vitesse BB

To: BirdDog who wrote (38136)	1/18/2001 5:51:24 PM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

There was a large institutional buy on JDSU today. I think they are hyping it so they can sell it to their clients. Add in a little Fidelity counter-rotation and you get a big move. TP

To: BirdDog who wrote (38136)	1/18/2001 6:46:06 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Some big source(s) on the market want to relieve themselves of a portion of their position in jdsu without it dropping.... Any thoughts? Am I going crazy? It's hard to determine when paranoia crosses from neurosis to psychosis. Perhaps Dr. Id could help you qualify the severity of your disease <lol>. I have no doubt that stock manipulation exists, but we should ignore it on this thread. The large caps we focus on are impossible to steer for lengthy periods, and our holding times are so long in comparison that it would be a waste of effort to analyze those relatively brief fluctuations. Besides, I think most dips or rises have logical causes; blaming it on manipulation is an easy way out. In the case of jdsu, it's been hammered for a long time and would seem to be oversold. Now that the tech market appears to be recovering some degree of optimism and with good reports from nt and jnpr recently posted, I'm not surprised that jdsu has bounced. I wouldn't be surprised at a dip either. jmho, uf

To: BirdDog who wrote (38136)	1/18/2001 11:33:05 PM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

BirdDog: Given the barriers to entry and the substantial market share already held by participants in the optical-component space, I would doubt that institutions are shifting allocations (buying to unload? hyping to unload?) due to an isolated IPO, or even several. I think the uptake may be due more to the results coming out of NG network companies like Juniper and ONI and to comments by JDSU, NT, and Alcatel about the slowdown in cap ex being felt differently in various parts of the optic space. Moreover, RHK, which is followed closely by analysts, again revised its projections upwards for the DWDM side of the space. Also, recent news on the negotiations between NT and JDSU for the Zurich Raman switch factory have cleared up a missing element in the JDSU/SDLI merger. It also deals a blow to GLW. Corning went after SDLI for its active components. Piri isn't doing much heavy lifting for GLW, and it is now out of the bidding, apparently, for the Raman factory. Actives are necessary not only for sub-assemblies, which is a dominant trend, but they are more profitable. --Judith