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To: Dave who wrote (9330)	1/18/2001 6:27:43 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

Anyone know where bid/ask/last on Instinet ended??

To: Dave who wrote (9330)	1/18/2001 6:31:22 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14638

Since John Roth touched on the metro market several times, let me share a few paragraphs from Deutsche Bank's "Telecom Equipment Monthly," dated 12 January 2001: Optics The optical systems market will be driven by one fundamental in 2001 – the emergence of DWDM in the metro market. The evolution of the DWDM optical network to date has been based on the long-haul, with SONET and SDH dominating the metro area. However, as highlighted in optical networking above, 2001 will be the year of change. Economics has been the principal reason for the DWDM failure to gain traction in the metro market to date. Simply put, DWDM rings are too expensive for most carriers to deploy widely. Metropolitan-area transport systems today use 1310nm SONET/SDH optics extensively because they provide the best distance-to-cost trade-offs. However, as the capacity of a SONET ring running at 1310nm is exceeded, the addition of more equipment and more fibres facilitates growth. To enable supply to keep up with demand for bandwidth, the telco operators have to invest in additional capex. DWDM systems use the 1550nm region to transmit multiple signals as the 1550nm signal travels further and DWMD originated in the ultra long haul segment. Other than the distance capabilities, there are two main reasons for using 1550nm for DWDM: 1) DWDM systems lose some of the light in the process of combining and separating optical signals, and the extra transmission distance of 1550nm helps to compensate. 2) Erbium Doped Fibre Amplifiers (EDFAs) used to optically regenerate DWDM signals to travel greater distances, operate only in the 1550nm region. DWDM comes at a much higher price than standard 1310nm metro systems, but provides greater distance and can accommodate growth simply by adding more wavelengths to the existing system with the simple addition of new modules. The capability of a DWDM ring to scale with modular upgrades versus new boxes can result in lower ultimate equipment cost, and it certainly saves fibre. Perhaps more importantly, the DWDM-based system is less complicated and therefore faster and easier to deploy and manage as bandwidth grows. This ability to meet extremely high bandwidth demands in a fraction of the time at a fraction of the complexity and cost of standard SONET is what is driving the interest in DWDM. It is our analysis that during 2001 the economic and flexibility advantages of DWDM will fundamentally alter the growth dynamics of the optical systems companies in the metro segment. The growth in the DWDM optical systems market is fuelling growth in the optical component industry. RHK forecasts that the optical components industry will grow from $6.7 billion in 1999 to $23.1 billion in 2003 --- CAGR of 36%. Specifically in the metro market, RHK forecasts that components will grow from $188 million in 1999 to almost $740 million in 2003. [ADVA is their first pick in both DWDM and Optics, but this is no reflection on NA-based companies since it's a report on Europe. They also put ALA among their top picks.] Pat