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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (8871)	1/19/2001 10:00:20 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

...There's a very interesting way of thinking - in terms of "how long will this go on" or "how many times still will this have to happen until" - (be patient g): Given the present moment as a coordinate in t and the thing happening (power shortages, bear market, his/her current extramarital affair etc, world war going on) being something of a normal occurence [in the sense, the repeats would give you a Gaussian curve in terms of its length], then we can assume that the time now is somewhere between -sigma and +sigma for "such things" [the present moment is also normal ;), it's not right at the start anyway). Abrakadabra bla bla bla...this (whatever we are looking at) will go on for at least between 1/2 to twice as long as it took so far: in practical terms, the power shortages (its been brewing I think for cca 18months) will last at the very least for another 9 months to 3 years. Brace yourself for furry bras. dj PS: 1/2 to 2 were let's say 68% interval. 95% interval were 1/4 to 4x - or something to this effect.