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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pigboy who wrote (2605)	1/20/2001 5:35:00 PM
From: Douglas Nordgren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Hey Robert, how ya been?. I believe the progression of market visibility of the SAN component mfrs goes something like: HBA --> Hub --> Switch --> Director. IDC's factory revenue projections for these segments bear this out thru 2004. Have to dig those numbers up, they're lying around here someplace. The hub market was almost immediately superseded by switches. ZOOX and VIXL were virtually obsoleted when Brocade, at first snubbing FC-AL, belatedly brought loop (degraded) and switches together. ZOOX thought that was a great idea and have a loop switch now. VIXL has worked SAN fabric services into DWDM with Lucent. They'll survive, somehow and might be good for a pop now and then.. EMLX looks to be riding the crest of the first wave of HBA factory revs. Their long term 11% sequential growth rate seems a prudent forecast. I believe QLogic would be tracking EMLX if not for the ANCR acquisition. In remodeling itself to address 94% of the SAN component market, it has yet to be seen if, when, and how, the over $1 billion acquisition begins to pay off. At least that's what I think the market is telling me. The stock price has been an infrequent visitor to territory above the $99 price since the day of the acquisition's announcement. Brocade's fabulous overall performance stalled in the midst of fabulous profit taking during the second half of 2000, but the next run looks to be set to catch the second wave of increasing growth in switch revenues. Hopefully QLogic can find the curl on that wave, and several other subsequent waves. Douglas