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To: limtex who wrote (18577)1/25/2001 1:15:42 PM
From: orkrious  Respond to of 60323
 
MMC sales were down. How could that possibly be?

That is the least surprising thing in this report. Go back and reread someone's notes from the Q3 CC. Eli said MP3 sales were disappointing because of the Napster ruling. In this Q he talked about how the cost of an MP3 player with flash that plays an hour of music had to come down to $100 for MMC/SD to take off. If I remember correctly he predicts this in Q3 01.

Jay



To: limtex who wrote (18577)1/25/2001 1:42:31 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Limtex, SNDK is a relatively young company, and missteps as the last quarter are to be expected, that does not change the basic fact that they are in the fulcrum of a minor technological revolution in some consumer electronic products. There is no "danger" to the corporate life of SNDK, that I can see, they are flush with cash and have taken the necessary steps to provide capacity for the next wave of consumer demand. I don't know if the current malaise will translate into a true recession or not, the rapid collapse in consumer confidence indicates to me a possibility of such an event. Greenspan is testifying right now, and he believes that the current malaise is nothing more than a sharp "invetory correction", who am I to argue with AG? If we do not go into a recession, than the next wave down of the Naz will probably just establish a double bottom and in 9 months, anyone that bought SNDK here should look back and tell himself how smart he was. If this inventory correction turns into a recession because of continuos retrenchment of the consumer, than, in the next nine months there are probably going to be opportunities to buy SNDK much under today's lows. Unfortunately, I have no idea which it will be.

As for "foreseeing" this debacle, maybe it was possible (last quarter "channel stuffing could have been taken as a first inkling and the report of the worst Christmas in 10 years could have been use to amplify this). But look at SSTI, none of the problems (so far) that SNDK has, all other flash companies reporting flash to be still strong, and yet, it dropped like a rock, and I for one did not foresee the SSTI stock action here.

Last, it will be a mistake to throw the "baby with the waters", I think that SNDK is still a great company with a very large potential, and sometime in the next three years it will sell at a PE of 40 of the then "looking forward" $2.5 per share, or around $100.

Zeev