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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: im a survivor who wrote (18665)	1/26/2001 5:19:22 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 60323

KG, I have two "major scenario", one that is "recession-less", which is my high probability scenario, the second includes a recession induced by the Bush/Chenney team harping about a recession and causing consumer fright that impacts drastically end demand. In the recession-less scenario, I have a low in the Naz on or before the "ides of March" in the 2200 to 2400 range (if we do not get to 3050 by the end of next week, these numbers might even be further downgraded), I have SNDK creating a double bottom at $24, with a possible minor breach. In the recessionary scenario, I have the low in the May/August period (with a very worthwhile, almost 40% rally from the Ides of March lows in between) at NAZ 1900 and I have SNDK breaching $20 to around $17/18 or so. Not a pretty picture, and I cannot vouch for the accuracy either, I expected SNDK to bounce back to just under $39 by the end of next week, and for that we needed a good run and close above $33 today, so my model is quite fallible. I ahould also end that these two models assume no impact of our malaise on Asia and Europe, not a likely outcome, if Asian flew reappears like in 1998, we may simply extend the down cycle in time, but i see little likelihood of 1900 on the Naz being breached, if it is breached, I have no bottom till 1400, this is a very low "probability" scenario (10% or so, and if we approach 1900 with a strong of very negative readings on the tick, it may not happen, if we get to 1900 in "Chinese Torture" fashion, the likelihood of a capitaulation to 1400 increases.) After all this gloom and doom, it may be worthwhile mentioning that I also believe that SNDK will be a $100 plus stock sometime in the next three years (g). I just don't like staying in a stock with a downtrend, I'd rather miss few points from the bottom and ride it into the uptrend. Zeev