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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Verve who wrote (38496)	1/26/2001 8:23:48 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Verve, << I'm interested in your take on the Dr. J comment where he stated 1X phone quantities would dominate WCDMA phone quantities for 'several years yet to come' >> I agree with Dr. Jacobs. What he didn't say is that GPRS quantities will dwarf 1X phone quantities for years to come (at least through 2005). Crossover point is estimated variously as 2006 to 2008. CDG is forecasting CDMA as the dominant air interface after 2005. Perhaps. My guess is 2007. Give a year, take a year. << As a matter of fact, considering the sheer number of WCDMA networks going in (3 times as many as the current amount of CDMA operators) it was my thinking WCDMA handset sales would rather quickly overtake 1X handset sales. >> 3GPP W-CDMA lags 1x (which you can call 3G if you would like to even though its peak data rate is currently 153 kbps and max will be 307 kbps) by at least a year, probably 18 months. Very handset dependent, and as Dr. Jacobs says the standard pushes the envelope of available handset technology. Best case, non (IMT-2000) standard W-CDMA lags nonstandard 1x by 9 months (if DoCoMo does their "launch" like the SKT 'launch" end of May. When W-CDMA is deployed by existing GSM carriers it will initially be deployed as small islands in a sea of GPRS and GSM. It will expand out over several years, << one would presume WCDMA handsets will be available early next year. >> Maybe. Some possibly. I'm not counting on sufficient quantity for general deployment. Modem cards, some. Early next year (as Dr. J said) virtually all CDMA handsets will be 1x capable even if networks are not completely upgraded to 1x across the board (and they won't be). It is a great, seamless migration path for existing cdmaOne carriers in existing spectrum. In the case of W-CDMA, infra will be in ahead of handsets, and carriers will be waiting for handsets (and maybe waiting some more) just like Sprint, PrimeCo, Bell Atlantic, et al were in 1996, or Comcast was in 1995 when they cancelled their long standing cdmaOne contract and upgraded their net IS-36 TDMA. - Eric -