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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (67774)	1/26/2001 9:52:16 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

excellent post lurger, but the fact is nobody knows when the scales will tip in the demo's, and you know that when they do tip everybody will not believe the secular bear is in place. the post wwii boom and this boom became pretty equal a coupla years ago, cycles indicate that a major turning point could happen at any time between 98 and over the next several years, not a time to be complacent, considering that we just had "new economy" new era speak at a parabolic nas top that was way more vertical during the final blowoff than any of the other 20th century parabola's of real markets (29 dow, 89 nikkei, i'd have to get some help from somebody, to compare it to the gold parabola 1980) b b

To: lurqer who wrote (67774)	1/27/2001 4:25:34 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Demographics and U.S Stock Prices:I've done some extensive study of the relationship between demographics and long term trends in the U.S. Stock Market (without using economic considerations) using the chart on page 35 of Dent's Roaring 2000's book. I found a nice correlation when I developed an indicator based on #s of 40yr olds and 60yr olds. Our positive megatrend in the Market from '82 was due as much to the low immigration-adjusted birth rate in the 30's as it was to the high ia birth rate in the 50's. The implications for the next 14 years are rather interesting.