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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (67787)	1/27/2001 6:34:19 AM
From: John Rowton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Okay, I give, what are the implications? thanxx

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (67787)	1/27/2001 7:38:35 AM
From: s berg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Most refer to Dent in terms of Baby boomer's eventually bulling money out of the market for retirement. More interesting Q IMHO raised by earlier post is what happens when pool of young workers and consumers shrink, i.e. do we get economic stagflation reflected in a secular bear market. That is why I find it really worrisome that unemployment, admittedly a lagging indicator, is still at record lows even as the economy moderates, i.e. is this a harbinger of stagflation and the secular bear. Another interesting demographic force (this was a book I heard about on NPR) is of alternating decade periods of economic growth / declining crime rates with declining growth and rising crime rates. The idea is that children who grow up in the 70s are motivated by economic uncertainty to work hard whereas children who grow up in the 80s, not to disparage a whole generation, are less motivated because they grew up in affluent times. See the recent Doonebury strip about slacker college students trying to be Dot Com millionaires. Psysocmarper et al., Are you saying that the implication for the next 14 years is a secular bear.

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (67787)	1/27/2001 12:56:43 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Everyone perceives the market from their own perspective. Resulting from both training and inclination, my perspective is in terms of timescales. Most of my trades (as opposed to LTB&H positions) have a time horizon of weeks. Similar to the way a chartist will look at 2 minute bars prior to entering a multi-hour trade, I come to MDD (formally MDA) to lurq and get an idea of the ST landscape. Then I attempt to extrapolate to my own reference frame. Hence, I find it a little ironic to be discussing what might be called the "very long term" here. Given that it is the weekend and that I'm more than a little interested in the subject, unless lg would prefer otherwise I'll continue. using the chart on page 35 of Dent's Roaring 2000's book. One of the more intriguing concepts discussed in Dent's '99 book was that of an 80 year (actually paired 40 year) generational cycles. The idea is that one forty year generation will be disruptively innovative, creating both new inventions and new methods of organization. The subsequent generation, in part in reaction to the innovative generation, will be more conformist. But it is this generation that makes the previous generation's innovations work. To use Dent's terminology the innovative Henry Ford generation was followed by the consolidating Bob Hope generation that has now largely (although perhaps belied by Bush's cabinet <gg>) been supplanted by innovative boomers. He also alludes to a 500 year population boom cycle that should provide an extra emphasis to the current innovative cycle and its subsequent consolidation. According to Dent, one of the great innovations of the Ford generation was the standardized (assembly line) economy characterized by a hierarchical management style. Honed to perfection by the Hope generation, this economic model reached its peak 'round 1970. Again from Dent this was followed by an innovative customized economy characterized by a new network management technique. While I have some reservations about any graph that doesn't explicitly exhibit its ordinate, the chart on page 35 depicted the rise (and fall) of the standardized economy and its replacement by the customized economy. If I understand your post, you used the magnitude of the 40 and 60 year old cohorts from the immigration adjusted birth rate (as displayed on page 29) to obtain an insight into the origins of the secular bull (that began in '82) and this insight has "interesting" implications for the "next 14 years". Like John I would be interested in your "interesting" implications, but to gain some insight into their validity I would also like some discussion of your discoveries wrt the origins of the '82 secular bull. Please share. lurqer