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To: yard_man who wrote (62337)	1/27/2001 6:18:57 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I owned AA briefly in December, I think it was. Scalped a few dollars. Of course, it's higher now. <g> My limited research at the time revealed a heavy dependence on imported bauxite- which I considered a risk. My research on WMC suggests AA has a good source of bauxite lined up. There is an article on AL in Barrons- surplus or shortage. While Auto production represents a good sized portion of demand, the auto executive was still bullish on higher demand based on continued demand in construction, airplanes, and cans. I know the power costs are high at the moment, particularly in the northwest where we happen to be facing a hydro shortage due to low rain/snowpack, and the availability of sales to CA for huge sums of dollars/kwh. Net net, I've decided that the base metals situation doesn't warrent substantial investment at this time, as there are too many questions regarding future demand (worldwide recession?) and there are significant amounts of capacity shuttered. Rather, the companies should be identified now for purchase in the event a clearing horizon can be observed. Even with this posture, I'm considering token positions in WMC and N. I learned N had a PGMS find- though I haven't assessed what it will take to develop this new resource or it's potential impact on a company the size of N. A big risk with N is the potential for technology based productivity enhancments of the russian Norilsk operation. N doesn't appear to have the diversification of WMC. Though they do seem to mirror each other in trading.