Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (62431)	1/28/2001 2:53:15 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

While some stocks may be fairly priced, it appears they have not built in a sufficient risk premium given a certain amount of chaos in today's environment. For this reason, the risk adjusted return has racheted downward even if the nominal return remains steady. It's this lack of risk premium that makes it difficult to go long today. Possible positives going forward: If amortization of goodwill is eliminated, + increased profits for large goodwill holders + increased takeovers Lower energy costs? While US costs, especially Natural Gas and electricity in the Western US will likely remain high by historic measures, the balance of the world should see lower total energy costs on the back of lower demand. Lower interest rates? In light of reduced economic activity, it is quite possible that interest rates could test the 94 lows. While this may be unable to kick start the us economy, which does have some malinvestment to work off, it could improve prospects for non us economies. Both by lowering borrowing costs, and encouraging repatriation of capital. Lower dollar? This should also benefit non-us economies, as resource prices based in us dollars become more affordable in local currencies. Multinationals with significant global earnings will see a reversal of the negative currency effect when repatriating earnings (assumed they didn't hedge too much). Paints a brighter future on a global scale? The US is hosed, but the world will see continued growth?

To: Lucretius who wrote (62431)	1/28/2001 3:30:25 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

>>if they buy this news..<< Haven't you heard? AG is going to cut the rate Wednesday 50 basis points. CNBC has assured us that rate cuts cure cancer, cause energy to magically appear at our wall sockets for free, our cars to run on air alone eliminating all requirements for gasoline and halts air pollution. It is also rumored to cause food to appear on hungry people's plates and profits magically appear in bank accounts even if no one pays for anything. Buy the dip <g> If this week ends up, I am just going to go buy myself a clown suit, a big red nose and some floppy shoes. I wonder if I can get one of those little cars to hold my whole family? Good Luck, Lee