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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John who wrote (67895)1/29/2001 5:15:19 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 99985
 
Clueless ............. but may speculate for a drift higher even that February is historically negative or flat. My speculation for an updrift is based on a V shape inventory recovery and stable oil prices.

At Davos OPEC clearly stated that they prefer "price stability" around $25 and I specullate that they will invest their petrodollars in financial markets, IMF Fisher urged the FED to continue to lower interest rates and Arafat proved who he is and lost credibility with most Europe, which in turn lowered his influence in inciting a regional conflict in the ME.

Least noticed was that Japan economy gave signs of life to the disbelief of many.

BWDIK
Haim



To: John who wrote (67895)1/29/2001 11:38:29 PM
From: jmanvegas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
The Fed should aggressively lower rates by 75-100 basis points on Wednesday. 50 points is already assumed by the markets so what's the big deal. The markets need to be shaken up and surprised. Giving the markets what they expect doesn't do anything at this point. If the markets were so enamored with the supposedly 50 point drop, the Naz would be trading over 3000. It ain't. Unfortunately, I don't believe the Fed will lower by more than 50 points. But I keep hoping that AG and his octogenarian cronies see the handwriting on the wall and that doling out 50 point cuts at this stage of the game is not gonna cut it. It's not fun reading everyday about another massive layoff. It's not fun seeing energy prices getting out of control, especially utility prices. According to a CBS report, the California crisis is going to get much worse this summer - much worse. Thousands of Californians are calling Salvation Army (of all organizations) to help them pay utility bills that have tripled recently and are expected to rise even further. What are we going to see? People dressed as Santa Claus during summertime standing outside supermarkets asking for quarter donations to help fellow citizens pay their utility bills.

This reminds me of Japan after their stock market bubble crashed. Rates in Japan have hovered between 0%-1% for some time now. Has that helped their economy? So interest rate cuts are not the cure-all. We also need a massive tax cut, total elimination of capital gains, etc. The fact is that sizeable government debt that is manageable is good. It allows foreigners to safely park their money here and get decent rates of return. Unfortunately again, I don't believe we will see any of the above either. I am quickly losing confidence in government officials and politicians to do anything right. Just take a look at the socialists who have run California for the last 10 years. The sh*t is now hitting the fan. If anyone thinks that this is not going to have a very long lasting effect on the economy is deluding himself. You can't have $30/barrel oil, $4-7/BTU natural gas, utility bills that go from $100/month to $300/month with no end in sight, and have the American consumers just go out and consume just because the Fed is throwing a bone and gonna lower rates. The Fed needs to lower rates beyond the 175 basis points of rate hikes from last year to maybe get back where demand for goods will accelerate and get us out of this malaise.

Anyway, enough of my ranting. I absolutely enjoy this thread. To all - keep up the excellent posts.

jmanvegas