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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41759)	1/30/2001 12:52:52 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

maybe you or someone knows already... during the past recessions years ago, what has the market doen during the recessions. i have yet to study the charts in depth, been too busy..

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41759)	2/1/2001 12:39:25 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

I am working long hours and haven't had much time to post lately but just had to chime in tonight. I have been writing warnings on our website all week and am kind of shocked to see so much bullishness tonight. While many will argue that ignoring bad news is bullish, I view the last week or so as a trap. Note how volume has declined all through this rally the last few days and the selling this afternoon saw the volume pick up. FA is horrendous. I don't think I need to say much about the missed earnings, lowered forward guidance and the other obvious bad news out there but the economic stats from this morning couldn't have been worse. Heinz predicted long ago that we were headed for stagflation. This morning showed that GDP was down around 1.4% yet inflation was up around 2.6%. It doesn't get much more "stagflationary" than that ( is that a word?) All economists know how to raise rates to fight inflation or goose liquidity to fight off a recession but no one has a fix for stagflation. It is a two headed monster where one head gains strength as you fight the other side. Just going with one simple chart, the QQQ, shows me we are headed south, not up. marketswing.com Declining volume until this afternoon, lower high, wedge drop, resistance line held at exactly the 38% fib retrace level, on and on. Yes, the 62 area could hold and it could morph into a bull flag but right now it is heavily weighted towards the negative. Most of my other charts as I wrote last night were either at resistance, had over bought signals or both. As I type this they are trying to ramp futures so maybe I am wrong but this sure doesn't look like a spot to get too bullish yet. Dollar is holding up better than expected but is weakening so far and gold and other hard assets are making a bounce which is another warning sign. I would be very careful here. I do think the next drop can be bought but not too early. We are in the window where most double bottoms occur ( 4-8 weeks), there isn't any good news on the horizon and next quarter will surely have worse earnings warnings than this quarter with consumer sentiment just now starting to show negative and job layoffs starting to hit. Good Luck, Lee