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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TWICK who wrote (36546)	1/31/2001 5:40:17 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<<Long live the bubble>> It is the question of perception, markets make bubbles and pierce them, for me someone short big time on Jan first 2001, was sitting on a bubble too, that of inflated high profits on put options Mar contract 1200's, the volatility, momentum creates extraordinary opportunites on both sides of the market, this ability of 'market wealth' not to be loyal to anyone is the very reason of global markets stability. One way flows will destroy the fabric of global finance. Like Oil has to go up and down otherwise global flows of capital would get distorted. The problem with the people who are of bearish mind is that when oil hits at 40$, that is not a bubble or Gold artifically hits 800$ that was never a bubble, a non-productive and non-sustainable commodity price moving up is acceptable, that will find more often in genric programming code most of the people who like to be short. The other way around is based on hard facts, a market sustained rally is the most difficult kind of market move, the ability of market moving down and propensity to do it is far higher, don't perform and market will keep moving down. That is not a bubble, rather the move of grounded billions of barrel of oil and move of hoarded billion of ounces of gold lent at ridiculously low rates by the central banks may be called as a bubble move or the accrual of huge premiums on put options with nothing but pessimism backing them is another kind of bubble. I have been a benficiary of these great moves in last two months and I can see what it is like if one is short and does not cover, it is a total disaster.. In case of TXN or CSCO or NOK my core holdings I own tangible assets in case of the short funds my only assets are how pessimist I can be on the market, that is what I call real bubble trading. The 'bubble is where you sit and look at it, right now where I see it from since Jan 1, it is just the return of normalcy to what was and oversold situation, we can see new selling as market interprets a slower move by Fed as inaction, but at last all this will all boil down to 0% growth materialising or not, if we see economy growing at 3-5% band by second quarter which is very possible, 'our bubble' will return but otherwise we can see the 'other bubble' shorts are comfortable with.. Lets have fun which ever side market goes, for us 'longs' we have eveything to lose on the short selling so we join it hard, hence we will be traidng the other side to protect our core with best of our ability..a long goes for dynamic hedging a short has to go long only time when he cover his 'wrong footed' trades, it is the covering of the huge short positions that breaks resistances like 1328 and 1370 on SPX, not initiation of new long positions,, I thought that open minded apporaches in market begets the richest of the dividends..