Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41813)	1/31/2001 9:19:21 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

[World DRAM Price] 'White-Box' Makers Face Heavy Losses from Falling DRAM Prices January 31, 2001 (TOKYO) -- DRAM prices continue to fall, causing white-box or non-brand PC makers in Europe and the United States to face heavy losses. They suffered sluggish sales during the end of last year, and they still have parts in stock. Since the drop in DRAM prices is considerable, they would have heavy losses even if they could sell their products. So small white-box makers will face great difficulties. According to the world DRAM price survey by ICIS-LOR, which is based in London, Houston, and Singapore, the moving average prices of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16Mb x 8) for large users during the 30-day period from Dec. 14, 2000 to Jan. 12, 2001 were US$12.62 in North America, US$7.75 in Europe, and US$7.20 in Asia, declines of 8.68 percent, 10.40 percent, and 5.62 percent, respectively, compared with the moving average prices during the previous 30-day period through Jan. 5. For memory modules, the spot price of 128MB DIMMs (PC133) in North America dropped to US$45.83, declining by 2.14 percent compared with the previous week. The spot price in Europe dropped to US$47.58, down 5.93 percent, and Asia saw a 4.81 percent decline to US$42.46. While demand from individual users for PCs are considered to have been largely met, demand from industry is highly expected in the PC market in 2001. Industries made big investments to tackle the Y2K problem in the first half of 1999. If the cycle of the system investment continues in an interval of three years, the next peak is expected around the end of 2001. Along with Microsoft Corp.'s new "Whistler" operating system, the demand for DRAMs probably will increase sharply from the end of 2001. Table: 30-Day Rolling Averages of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16M x 8) Dec.14, 2000-Jan. 12, 2001 (survey by ICIS-LOR)Area Contract price Week-on-week comparison North America US$12.62 -8.68% Europe US$7.75 -10.40% Asia US$7.20 -5.62% *Week-on-week comparison is the comparison with the 30-day rolling averages of Dec. 7, 2000-Jan. 5, 2001. Previous report: Prices Continue to Fall Reorganization of DRAM Makers May Occur (Nikkei Market Access) Subject 50522

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41813)	1/31/2001 10:43:13 AM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Some speculations abt interest rates: 1) AMAT has huge cash, 6 billion I think, that is probably earning money in short-term bonds. Lower interest rates will yield lower income. This will be fairly immediate. 2) OTOH-- lower interest rates should stimulate demand for end-use products, but there will be a latency. 3) In previous downturns, because of the cash reserves, and good management, AMAT has gained market share. They did not cut R&D and kept investing on capex. In addition, they cut variable costs admirably by layoofs and salary cuts--thereby somewhat insulating us investors. I remain confident that the basic demand for semis will increase as new and smaller products emerge. comments? fred

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41813)	2/1/2001 6:59:35 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, that's me, always to do the dirty jobs that almost nobody else will tackle. On the chart issue, I looked at a few meself. Here's my take: The downturn from last April to now was independent of the current issue, for AMAT stock at least it is purely the unraveling of the .com bubble. We went up unexpectedly, far surpassing reasonable valuations, then we came down. Nothing of importance changed during that time in the business fundamentals for AMAT. The current crisis is actually just emerging, and I haven't a clue what it will do to the stock price. Some folks I've talked to, including that beer-swilling guy I forced myself to listen to (and drink with), say that really, it's just now becoming apparent; say the last 6 weeks tops, and most likely since Christmas. It's the rate of drop that's got many scared of where it's going. I called another person I know who works for Dell but has connections back at AMAT where he worked previously, and he says he's heard about the same numbers I have (he actually quoted a drop from 262 systems in Q4 last to 117 in the upcoming Q2, with only 77 of those actually booked). Indeed, the system orders slowdown I've had shared with me may not be representative of AMAT's overall business, now that they're into so many segments of semi equips. We shall see, of course. I firmly predict that in one year, we'll all be looking back and congratulating ourselves for just how good our predictions turned out.... <grin> Mitch PS I've retired the flamethrower until fuel prices come down. You're safe from me, for a while at least. M