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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XenaLives who wrote (2745)	1/31/2001 3:36:09 PM
From: NeuroInvestment	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

I know nothing about charts and consider them primarily a vehicle for self-fulfilling prophecies. But I do know a fair amount about NEOT. You have two opposing forces which account for the volume and lack of price movement: 1) The rodent data indicating Neotrofin triggers stem cell proliferation hits a hot button, stem cell access and modulation. It may explain (partly) a mechanism of action that thus far had been vaguely defined. It is also a reminder that, in spite of its mismanaged Phase III effort in 2000, which had to be scuttled when the dosing turned out to be wrong, Neotrofin is still ahead of the regenerative therapies group as a potential tx for AD. It lags behind memantine as the first non-cholinesterase drug, but memantine has protective effects, not regenerative. vs. 2) NEOT has burned too many public relations bridges with impulsive anecdotal claims regarding clinical effects and Big Pharma interest. The announcement last fall that Neotrofin was being 'fast-forwarded', when explaining that the large-scale Ph III was being terminated, was the piece de resistance, or for skeptics, the coup de grace. Thus announcements from NEOT that might stir more sustained interest in another company will be taken with much salt. Furthermore, they need money, and the likelihood of dilution under onerous terms looms large. So: #1 brought the stock price from 2.25 to 2.70 or so, #2 keeps it from going beyond. An oversimplified explanation that doubtless leaves out all sorts of nefarious manipulation, short maneuvering, and such, but I prefer to keep it simple. NeuroInvestment (www.neuroinvestment.com)

To: XenaLives who wrote (2745)	1/31/2001 5:01:27 PM
From: Jibacoa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Paula: Excuse me for interfering. I don't consider myself an expert on charts or TA, but I guess I have some "experience" about it since I have been looking at them since the early sixties.(It will be 40 yrs. soon) About NEOT: It has been on a frank and steady down-trend since it made a major top on the last two days of Oct. and first week of November. It closed at the H for the day{10} on Oct.31 on a volume of 112,300, but the next day {Nov,1} the intra-day H was 9.68 and it closed at 8.87 on volume of 57,900. It tried to rally on Nov.2 & Nov.3 On Nov.2 it closed again at the H for the day {9.37}and on Nov. 3 the intra-day H was 9.87 but it closed at 9.50 on volume of 137,300. After the weekend,on Nov.6 it completed what the "technicians" call a "head & shoulders" formation. The intra-day H that day was 9.68 and it closed at 7.31 on volume of 376,900. Since that day, as I mentioned, it has had a steady down course until yesterday's L of 2.25 at 1.30PM and at the close. Today it opened with a good up-gap with an intra-day H of 3 in the first 15 minutes of trading. The first 15 min. volume of 239,100 is the heaviest it has had for some time.It closed some of the early up-gap at 2.15PM (at 2.56)but it recovered in the next 15 minutes up to 2.62 with a 15 min. volume of 243,100 As far as the immediate outlook, IMHO, it probably needs more of a "base" taken into account the rather long down-trend. It certainly has to close above today's early H of 3 and then has to deal with "resistance" from the Jan.19 H at 3.59 and the Jan.17 intra-day double top at 3.62 The next "resistance" will be then the Jan.4 H at 4.75 I don't know if all of the above is or will be of any help to you. Of course "charts" help, but you have to make some DD and look at the "fundamentals" and "earnings potential" which are the ones that are really important. Bernard