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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (47665)	1/31/2001 7:26:00 PM
From: PMS Witch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Thank-you for the clear explanation of option roulette. Now, since shareholders will be left holding the bag eventually, we must conclude that some Greater Fool Theory has been at play to account for the tremendous appreciation during the last decade. So the question becomes "When will the world run out of idiots?" I believe, a few months ago, you've posted as close an answer to this as one can reasonably expect, given the fogginess of crystal balls --- When the boomers decide to enjoy their gains. Are you beginning to change your mind? Recent posts seem to point to the discovery of some blue smoke and magic mirrors in Optionland. If true, we can expect a mass removal of rose-coloured spectacles and an accompanying share price collapse. Or do I see a darker picture than the one you're painting. Cheers, PW. P.S. Over the years, CSCO has been a very good investment. Trouble is, when something looks too good to be true, it often is just that, too good to be true; hence, my scepticism gets aroused. But when I first began suspecting CSCO of being too good, it was trading at 3-5 and rising while it's earnings growth was slowing. I continued to hold because its 19 PE seemed reasonable.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (47665)	2/1/2001 12:47:17 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

John, Great post. You and Bambs really posted a couple of winners and this is why I am really short Crisco. If someone can just give us the tri-fecta of a post about their investment gains, you will all clearly understand the 3 reasons why I am short Crisco and have no plans of covering for a long time. chic

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (47665)	2/1/2001 4:35:58 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Great post. I vote for the free lunch. Because as a Cisco shareholder, I have benefited tremendously from their runup over the last 4 years. So the real question is whether this is a glorified ponzi scheme or what. If it is, then companies like Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, etc, who use options heavily will implode eventually. Maybe we should leave Microsoft out of it, since they aren't as acquisitive nor do they use pooling as often. So when the bubble bursts, the shareholders have more to lose, because they've put up their own capital. But I'd say employees lose and the IRS loses too. Because employees who thought they were wealthy, watch their wealth evaporate. Then they are just wage earners like everyone else. Also, the IRS loses on all the money they were making from the stock's inflation. Anyway, I liked your post. Well thought out.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (47665)	2/3/2001 2:54:28 PM
From: Andy Thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

stock options: --As an executive, I also gotta tell you this option thing is the greatest way of paying employees without having to go the equity market and raise cash. Add to this that unvested in-the-money options (lots of them) are the greatest monkey trap ever invented. Monkey can't get out of the jar with their hand around the apple! Gotta love it. -- when i was working at msft on the win95 project, i was getting ready to cash in on the huge anticipated earnings spike which would have come the 2nd-4th quarters of fiscal year '96. however, before any of that could take place, the executives announced, 'deferred earnings.' that made me fairly livid at the time. anyhow, it's just another example of the 'can't get out of the jar with their hand around the apple!' andy