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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (68170)	1/31/2001 11:04:22 PM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>You should know that Zeev's forecasting record is among the BEST. You are likely to lose betting against him.<<< I respect Zeev, and have exchanged informative posts with him, but the fact remains. Positive breath remains strong, bad earnings reports are being met with equally strong hands, supply is being met with more demand for securities, stochastics on the monthly chart for the COMPX still indicate more upside, as well as the weekly, and housing recorded their best ever month in sales for quite sometime. 401-k infusions continue to come pour in(Jan/Feb are historically the highest months for them). You have to ask yourself, "Why haven't the markets sold off in the face of all this bad news"? Why? Because the demand for securities for the past three weeks has been greater than supply. Until that changes or something causes a major shock to the markets, the dips will continue to be bought in the face of negative news. I have stated since last December, I felt the markets would rally till mid-to-late March due to several factors. Money exiting out of the bond markets and into securities, lowered interest rates, 401-k infusions(Jan/Feb), revised earnings so low, most companies would beat estimates. Now that brings us to late March early April. I believe we will sell-off during that period for these reasons: Earnings will be the worst ever in years, because IMO we are currently in a recession or very close to one, and first quarter earnings will reflect that. Economic data will shock the market by indicating unemployment has risen faster in the past six months, than over the last decade. As tax day approaches, investors will pull money out of the market to pay Uncle Sam. The bottom line is, so many people on this thread have changed their opinions on a weekly basis from bull to bearish, and bearish to bullish so many times, they don't know what the hell is going on. I have held my original stance all along, and nothing had changed. I still remain bullish till mid-March. You talk about Don Hays, this is precisely what I'm talking about. NO CLEAR DIRECTION! Remember this....>>>Don Hays says *bear market rally to continue (after short-term pullback) BUT:*<<< And this...>>>In fact, one leg of our 4-legged approach that we use for our asset allocation model has just been destroyed. That is the valuation leg<<< Message 15274560 The fact is, noone knows entirely what will happen, but at least I have state emphatically what would happen in the short-term, and have not steered away from that ONCE, unlike so many that post here. So far, my predictions have held up very well, and I fully expect that to continue. BTW...regarding gold, my prediction is that Gold will have a short squeeze by late summer. Message 15106903 KM