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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (11970)	2/3/2001 11:34:46 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78481

Forest products industry: list of companies (From MSDW): ARH Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd. CRO Crown Pacific Partners, L.P. DEL Deltic Timber Corp FFS Fletcher Challenge Limited TGP Georgia Pac Corp GP Georgia-Pacific Corporation LFB Longview Fibre Company LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation MYS Masisa S A POPEZ Pope Res Del Ltd Partnership PCH Potlatch Corporation RYN Rayonier, Inc. WY Weyerhaeuser Company WLL Willamette Inds Inc Paper Products Industry: list of companies ABY Abitibi-Price Inc. PFA Alliance Fst Prods Inc AIP American Israeli Paper Mills Ltd. ARA Aracruz Celulose S A PAP Asia Pulp & Paper Company Ltd BPMI Badger Paper Mills Inc BCC Boise Cascade Corporation BOW Bowater Incorporated BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc BNL Bunzl Pub Ltd Co CSAR Caraustar Industries Inc DTC Domtar Inc. FMK Fibermark Inc GID Grupo Industrial Durango, S.A. de C.V. ZCOM Impreso Com Inc KVIKB Industriforvaltning Ab Kinnevk IP International Paper Company JS Jefferson Smurfit Group plc MERCS Mercer Intl Inc NSH Nashua Corporation GLT P.H. Glatfelter Company POP Pope & Talbot, Inc. SPP Sappi Ltd SWM Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc. SEO Stora Enso Corp MEA The Mead Corporation UPM Upm Kymmene Corp VCP Votorantim Celulose E Papel Sa WMO Wausau-Mosinee Paper Corp W Westvaco Corporation

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (11970)	2/4/2001 12:39:10 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78481

CRO is the lumber pure play that's taken the biggest beating as a cyclical, due to low lumber prices: Crown Pacific Anticipates Earnings Shortfall and Reduction of Quarterly Distribution PORTLAND, Ore., Dec. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Crown Pacific Partners, L.P. (NYSE: CRO - news) today announced that its earnings for the fourth quarter of 2000 would be significantly below analyst expectations of $0.20 per unit. The lower results will negatively impact the unitholder distribution level and the Board of Control is now analyzing, in accordance with the Partnership agreement, what level of quarterly distribution is sustainable given the current market conditions. The Board expects to complete this analysis, and announce the fourth quarter distribution level by mid-January 2001 after receiving the Partnership's fourth quarter results. Continued dramatic declines in prices for lumber, logs and timberland have impacted the Partnership's cashflow and earnings necessary to pay the current level of distribution without impairing the long-term value of its assets. biz.yahoo.com That announcement of a dividend cut was fairly predictable, but it sliced the market cap by more than half. Here's an excerpt from an October analyst report, when the stock was selling for about 18 vs. about 7.8 now: Crown Pacific’s hallmark has been its ability to meet cash flow and distribution growth targets. However, with wood prices at current levels, we believe the company would encounter difficulties meeting objectives. Additionally, most of the cash flow generated has come from harvest levels that we believe exceed the growth rates on Crown Pacific’s lands. We note that, based on our estimate of Crown Pacific’s net asset value, we think there could be upside in CRO on a liquidation basis. ============== Taking a look at the balance sheet, it is highly leveraged, with $688 M of LT debt, vs. $151 M equity. biz.yahoo.com