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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2001 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (241)	2/3/2001 7:59:14 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 289

Thanks for an interesting thread. Just FYI, I had picked SORC here, which closed at 3.75 on 12/29 and 5.625 on 2/2 for a clean 50% gain. I am holding for another 50% or so from here. Good luck.

To: Q. who wrote (241)	2/4/2001 3:23:13 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 289

After this experience, I think I will next year put less emphasis on the safety issues like cash per share, and more emphasis on low-RS in the final weeks of December. I think I'll retain the other aspects of my stock screening: low RS for the year and high ownership levels by individuals. It appears this and % off their high of prior year (maybe related to level of short interest) have contributed to the height some of these bouncing stocks went this January. mad2

To: Q. who wrote (241)	2/4/2001 6:11:57 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 289

N, I post my results for the January Effect 2001 portfolio: siliconinvestor.com Most of the selling was done on Jan 18th and 19th, (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=15177187) ,... some of the prices have already degraded a bit since the top earlier that week. Sheet 2: January2001 Sym bought Sold Share Amtbought sold Gain %Gain CLRS 6,00 8,00 166,67 1.000 1.333 333 33,3% CNQR 1,03 1,75 969,70 1.000 1.697 697 69,7% COVD 1,47 2,63 680,85 1.000 1.787 787 78,7% DATC 1,50 2,94 666,67 1.000 1.958 958 95,8% DSLN 0,50 1,44 2.000,00 1.000 2.875 1.875 187,5% ELNK 5,00 8,63 200,00 1.000 1.725 725 72,5% ESTM 0,14 0,31 7.142,85 1.000 2.232 1.232 123,2% FFIV 9,50 13,00 105,26 1.000 1.368 368 36,8% LCTO 0,50 1,63 2.000,00 1.000 3.250 2.250 225,0% MAXM 6,00 8,75 166,67 1.000 1.458 458 45,8% NSPK 1,50 2,88 666,67 1.000 1.917 917 91,7% OPUS 0,25 0,69 4.000,00 1.000 2.750 1.750 175,0% PLRX 0,25 0,31 4.000,00 1.000 1.250 250 25,0% ROWE 0,50 1,22 2.000,00 1.000 2.438 1.438 143,8% SMSI 0,75 2,88 1.333,33 1.000 3.833 2.833 283,3% TERN 5,00 7,75 200,00 1.000 1.550 550 55,0% XLA 3,75 12,13 266,67 1.000 3.233 2.233 223,3% Totals 17.000 36.656 19.656 115,6% Totals assuming 1c/shr commissions 17.270 36.386 19.116 110,7% Assuming Value #12/29/2000 close 18.726 36.386 17.660 94,3% During the time and up to now, none of the stocks got halted or went bankrupt. One stock, PLRX(D) got delisted to the OTCBB where it rose over 80% after I sold. As I announced that it left prematurely I used the original sale price rather than the price on Jan 18/19 for evaluation. Some statistics: 7 of the stocks traded initially under $1. The average gain on those mongrels was: 166% Included the trade price for PLRX at 0.50 (instead of .31) the gain on this subportfolio was 177% 5 of the stocks traded over $1 and under $5. The average gain here: 112% (including XLA which gained 220%). Excluding XLA the gain was only 84%...this only underscors the speculative nature of xcelera.com 5 of the stocks traded over $5 when bought (MAXM, FFIV, CLRS, ELNK, TERN). Here is the average gain: 49%... The gain in the $5 group is perhaps understated because I clearly missed the bottom on those guys (especially MAXM on average as well as tern) as I bought the initial lots too early and had to average. That which was definitely not the case in stocks like DSLN or DATC which have been thrown away later in December and which I watched like a hawk before buying... Where to from here: While the whole portfolio appears to have some resistance and does not go down while the market dives (it still shows $37k on Friday after the nasdaq carnage), some part of it can be shorted, as I pointed out that such spikes may provide nice entries for shorts - see XLA)... Shorting the whole thing might be difficult, there is always one stock (like DSLN recently, or XLA earlier) which helped the performance...