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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (46571)	2/3/2001 4:28:55 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I stay away from bio-tech for two reasons; #1 I don't understand genetic biology #2 - many of these companies are like dot.coms, they MIGHT make a big profit in the future but are not doing so now. Bio-techs are the ultimate casino stocks. They sway back and forth strictly based on conventional wisdom (or lack thereof). Good luck though. As for techs, when you have INTC selling at 21 PE that's pretty damn cheap and reasonable. Take a look at the leaders and you'll find that their PE's are mostly very reasonable. It's the ones with the 100 PE's or more I'd shy away from except on sharp sell-off dips. Remember that much if not all of the uncertainty worries you hear these days have been priced in. Today's news spin cycle on what's hot and what's not only lasts usually only a day or two before it changes. Friday was just plain nervous profit-taking as far as I'm concerned and that should be a healthy thing. The whole market seems to be profiting often which means just get in and out a little quicker. Which also means buy into the negativity and sell into the bullish frenzies. One thing I think we can safely assume now is that there will be peak and valley opportunities for both sides. despite the fact that I am mostly bullish I know nothing goes straight up. There will be minim corrections in both directions as we go. Sideways maybe. But I'm betting that the Fed has decided not to let the techs get hit hard again. They will come to the rescue when necessary to kill irrational exuberance on the short side. Just like they killed the long side exhuberance last year. In both cases fighting the Fed was the losing battle.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (46571)	2/3/2001 4:51:11 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

greenlaw4-7: I think biotechs will be like the internet, all right, although not quite in the way you imagine. While they had a stellar run last year, I think investors are no longer willing to chase them up to higher levels on the promise of products 3-5 years away, at best. The biotechs will be this year's version of 2000's internets -- many have and will continue to sell off dramatically without ever recovering. The only biotech winners will be those larger companies with well established products already in the marketplace (AMGN, DNA, IMNX), those companies with a multi-drug pipeline of drugs in Phase III trials, and the picks-and shovel companies (ABSC, PKI, WAT) that all biotech companies buy from. This is a good sector to avoid this year, IMO.