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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric who wrote (48018)	2/5/2001 5:20:46 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

It's not like building cars! you're right...less barriers to entry in tech businesses. perhaps I will start up a little csco used parts business...i can buy routers and switches at 5%-10% cost at CLEC and dot.com bankruptcy sales and resell them with installation services for a nice profit. bambs

To: Eric who wrote (48018)	2/5/2001 5:36:36 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 77399

Eric, I'll tell you what concerns me most about Cisco these days. It has nothing to do with execution or accounting - although that's what most of the bears point to... my concern is sentiment. Over the past year Cisco has out executed and out performed even what appeared to be aggressive forecasts. In April 2000 Barons stated the party was over and Cisco - along with the NAZ took a dive... Barons said that there is no way Cisco can keep up the growth rate. In July Cisco turned in another stellar quarter - even better than the previous - and again the press was out stating that there is no way Cisco can keep the growth rates up... the stock was sluggish at best. In October Cisco again beat - showing top line growth in excess of 60% for the third quarter in a row... and even though they had stated clearly in July that they would increase inventories to satisfy customer ship times the press latched on to inventory as something that was a concern and again Cisco stock languished. So what concerns me isn't execution or balance sheets or inventory - it's the press, analysts, and investory sentiment. By all accounts Cisco has been wildly successful - their entrance into service provider and optical markets has been nothing short of amazing and yet the stock has sold off. They suggested a year ago that growth would be about 30% and they have done 60%+ and the stock has languished. So, what will it be this time? Cisco will likely show a slower top line growth - heck it may even be near 50% (the top of Chamber's 30%-50% range) and that will be viewed (I'm guessing) as a negative. My point is that no matter what Cisco says or does the press/analyst community will find something to bang the drum about. So, at the heart of the issue is when will sentiment change - when will the good things be discussed - the fact that they are now one of the largest providers of communications equipment in the world and continue to take market share from nearly every segment? My sense is that Cisco's share price is more about perception than reality. Any company that generates $25B+ in annual sales but is growing in excess of 50% on the top line certainly deserves a pretty hefty premium. BWTFDIK? OG