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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (9466)	2/6/2001 12:44:04 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Kirk, Even the best economists don't know whether there's been a recession until after it's over, except for the shouting. While the theory re shortlived recessions going forward sounds good, even desirable, it strikes me more as wishful thinking than rigourous analysis. Both individuals mentioned are infinitely wiser than I, especially re the economy. But if we get into a real recession with lots of real people losing lots of real jobs, I wouldn't expect a nice clean start / stop because business is able to better manage its inventory. It's also possible that the faster reaction to a drop in demand could lead to a sharper spiral than might otherwise have been. In any case, the odds favour that all we're likely to actually see is the fear of a recession rather than the real thing. And with Greenspan pumping liquidity into the system, lowering the funds rate aggressively and congress negotiating the details of a tax cut, it's quite possible that we'll only feel a slight bump as the economy takes off once again. After all, not much more than a year ago, the leading gurus would have looked at an unemployment rate of 4.2% as quite inflationary, not an indicator of a recession. (except Kudlow, he has never looked at growth and employment as being bad things) FWIW, Ian.