Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maverick61 who wrote (46745)	2/6/2001 9:54:36 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

maverick61. Excellent post. If one looks at the NASDAQ index and most tech stocks from beginning of the year to today's close, the NASDAQ is only up 3% YTD and 13% of the positive move was accounted for by the surprise interim Fed interest rate hike of .50 on Jan. 3rd when NASDAQ went from 2300 to 2600 that day. In other words, we are still in a tech bear market and we have yet to see the earnings reports from Q1 and Q2, which will truly reflect the depth of the tech recession we are in. Aside from VERY selective and specific tech plays, this is still a sector to avoid until much later this year. I will be looking at the chip sector to help me determine when to begin accumulating tech stocks again. I find it difficult to see a tech recovery until the chip stocks finish their down cycle. Nearly every knowledgeable chip analyst is calling the chip trough to occur in September or October. Since the market anticipates such things in advance, I suspect that late August or September will be the time to re-enter techs, assuming that inflation remains tame and there are no exogenous factors which may create an overhang on the market. As you've correctly stated, what worked last year will work for most of this year -- defensive plays, sectors which benefit from an environment of declining interest rates, and value plays. I would strongly recommend that readers of this thread read two recent articles by Jim Jubak: "2001 Will be a Big Year For Small Victories" moneycentral.msn.com "Settle For the 'Easy Money' in 2001" moneycentral.msn.com Maverick61 is correct: the BIG money will be made much later this year. Be cautious and patient -- if you lose your money guessing where selected tech stocks will "bottom", you will only repeat last year's costly mistakes. DlphcOracl