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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (46818)	2/6/2001 10:33:02 PM
From: Brasco One	Respond to of 57584

imo, and only imo, we will be in a trading range. i dont see going a lot lower, but maybe going a little sideways in feb and go higher for earnings in march and 401 and ira investments for iras and tax bs by the 15 of april. from there we should go up/sideways in anticipation of 'rev recovery' and possible cuts. summer will be boring but 'tradable' market. we should do well in october, nov, dec... great to accumulate your favorite stocks and taking profits often as rande suggests(in bold ;). perservation of capital is key here. growing/trading it successfully would be ideal. great to have some protection on your longs with some options and hedging your capital with frequent shorts (stocks you dont like with unreasonable values.) as we move on with our mistakes and losses, confidence should be back in the markets. imo, good luck all.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (46818)	2/6/2001 10:45:46 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

You assume tech stocks will still be cheap later in the year. It seemes to me investors will get in very early, starting now, then just wait. If INTC for instance were to rise from a 20 PE to 30 PE between now and sumemr that's a 50% gain from here. It would still be "cheap" if a recovery is underway but in the meantime you've lost your 50% bottom buy. Last year everyone told me to dump retailers at the bottom and "wait for a recovery". Sure they tripled since then but the really good prices haven't been available since last spring. So buy early, buy low and have patience. In the meantime, being too bearish at the bottom just because of the negative sentiment around is a sure way to minimize your gains for the year. It is even possible that you may never INTC at $33 again for as long as you live. Quite possible.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (46818)	2/7/2001 12:19:24 AM
From: maverick61	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Thanks DO !!! I agree with you on the chips giving us guidance and ultimately leading the way - and the timeframes you noted are what I am also anticipating. Shoot, I would prefer to be as bullish as anyone - but I think people need to be realistic. The economy is bad, and most techs have already laid out that the next quarter or two will be bad. Year to Year earning comparisons don't become easier til the quarter ending in September. So, what catalyst will there be to drive techs higher in the near term? Sure, the Fed is in an easing cycle, but that will take time to cyle through the economy. SO, for now, its best to stay defensive / selective, go with those sectors which will benefit the most and the quickest from the fed easing and preserve capital. Trade adeptly if you can. then when the time is right, move back into techs full scale. Nothing I would like more than to see a return of a full fledged tech bull market - but IMO we need to be patient. Glad to see we are on the same page - I was starting to wonder if I was one of the few lone voices in the wilderness BTW - I concur with you on those Jubak articles. I have always found his articles well done and mainly on the mark. He's one of the few columnists I make sure I read each week.