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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (3243)2/9/2001 1:25:29 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Floyd Norris: The Junk Market Is Lending, but Banks Aren't
here's life in debt land.

February 9, 2001

The revival of the junk bond market has been the most impressive market story of 2001. Companies that could not have sold bonds late last year now get money easily. Even telecommunications bonds rated below B level — the nether regions of junk — are being sold.

That is great news for owners of junk bond mutual funds — the median such fund is up 7.2 percent since the end of 2000 — and for the companies that get the money.

For the rest of us, the important question is whether the sudden opening of the junk market portends the end of the credit squeeze that was one reason for the sudden economic slowdown. That outlook is not as bright.

Consider Levi Strauss, the junk-rated jeans maker whose business has suffered in recent years as it has lost market share. Profit rebounded last year, but revenue fell 10 percent and is down 35 percent from the 1996 peak. In October, it tried to sell $350 million in bonds but could not find buyers. But last month buyers lined up for $500 million in seven-year bonds that paid lower interest than Levi was willing to pay three months before. What had changed for Levi was not its financial outlook; it was the market.

So Levi has more cash available for advertising and investment, right? Wrong. Levi used to have $1.6 billion in bank credit available, but it renegotiated that deal in December. Now its bank line is down to $1.05 billion. Even with the bond proceeds, it has $50 million less in available credit.

That is in keeping with what the banks say they are doing. In January, 60 percent of banks told the Federal Reserve that they had tightened corporate credit over the last three months. None admitted to easing.

That isn't what the Fed wanted to hear. Back on Dec. 5, Alan Greenspan warned that bankers who had been too liberal in their lending might be going too far in the other direction, and urged them not to "cut off credit for borrowers with credible prospects." But bankers are seeing enough loans from earlier years go sour that they are scared to make risky loans now, as the economy weakens.

The evidence that the banks have so far ignored Mr. Greenspan's pleas will come as a surprise only to those who view him as omnipotent. A decade ago, he faced the same problem, which led to a lot of talk that the Fed's sharp easing of credit then amounted to "pushing on a string." Eventually the banks grew more friendly, but only after losses from previous credit cycles began to ease.

The January revival of the junk bond market reflected some factors that will not endure. Junk bond mutual funds entered 2001 with much more cash on hand than normal, as Martin S. Fridson, Merrill Lynch's junk guru, noted, creating something of a buying panic when the public suddenly started to send in money as well. There was also buying by "crossover investors," institutions that normally avoid junk bonds but that saw them as amazingly cheap.

Now such bonds seem reasonably priced, and some of the hot money may flee. Even if the junk bond market does stay relatively healthy, other sources of financing for non- blue-chip companies, whether the banks or buyers of new initial public offerings, remain cautious.

When capital was cheap and easy, a lot of money was wasted on bad investments and loans that will not be repaid. It will take time for those who provided the capital to work through the problems. In the meantime, corporations that need money face significant problems that will not be quickly solved by the Fed's interest rate reductions.



To: John Pitera who wrote (3243)2/12/2001 3:46:50 PM
From: wmwmw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Mr. John Pitera ,
Can you explain the bond performance today?
I heard an argument that if bond yields curve flat, then rate cut has little effect.
I see yields on long term bonds going up and on short term bonds going down today,is this a right direction on yield curve? And how much will be the positive effect on stock market? Thanks.