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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (86788)	2/10/2001 3:10:28 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Have you ever heard of the term "overcapacity"? The same idiotic claims where made for semi-conductor capacity - that demand for semi-conductors would continue endlessly and that semi fabs would never meet demand!!! Clearly California will plunge into a deep recession due to the excessively high NG prices and demand for the commodity will plunge/ Oh why should I even F*cking bother..... Econ 101 no longer matters to you guys. According to you guys, people will pay any price for NG even if it causes them to commit economic seppuku?!!!! They have no choice right? All of California will bankrupt itself so that you can become rich into perpetuity on your NG investments??? Did you people ever stop to think that this idiot Davis may not get re-elected? That California can meet their energy needs in some other way? Ever heard of the term "overbuilding"? Can't happen to the ute industry, right? What makes you so sure today's demand will remain constant? You have been reading the latest economic news haven't you? What makes you so sure that capacity will actually be used? I guarrandamntee you a whole lot of auto factory and related subsector capacity will not be used this year - ditto semiconductor capacity. If people in the oil industry wish to maintain the suicidal, childish, and shortsighted view that a bankrupt California is a "good thing", then they will get their true and richly rewarded deserts. Much, much, much lower oil and NG prices. It is idiotic to argue that the laws of economics have been repealed to satisfy the lust of a few stock traders. The magnitude of the forces at work here seem to be beyond the comprehension of the bulls just as same as they were beyond the bears a mere two years ago. That such arguments are made convinces me more than ever that a true cyclical top is at hand.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (86788)	2/10/2001 9:52:03 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I was switching back and forth between Wall Street Weeks and a film on Bravo last night, and may have missed something, but of all the supposedly bright ideas offered by the show I don't think anyone mnetioned energy. And not many people who appear on CNBC mention natural gas as a pure play, even if they mention energy. It looks to me as if we have this all to ourselves. Not to put too much pie in the sky, but that's the way it was with tech stocks in the 1990s. I was intensely interested in tech stocks then, but did not begin to imagine what a bubble they would eventually produce and so I was out many years too soon. To me, natural gas is a lot eaier to understand. It heats homes, makes fertilizer and plastics, generates electricity, and so on, and then it is gone. And more is needed. I never foresaw that millions of people would be buyiung a new computer every two years, but I do understand about the gas. There are huge amounts of money being transferred into gas producers and pipeline companies, and it seems likely that there could be a lot of consolidation, since they understand how underpriced their own and other companies are. It's a huge opportunity for someone with the right financial connections and managerial skills to create a gas empire out of smaller producers. The money is there now for exploration, development, and new pipelines. I can see that temporary oversupplies, or the prospect thereof, can quickly lower prices on the futures markets, but the consumption is always there, and growing. Even with a 150% increase in my own last heating bill, I consider the gas a bargain: no dirt, no deliveries, no maintenance, completely reliable. Well, now let's see what I forgot about. I admit that at one time it seemed crystal clear to me that if gold was selling at $350 and mining companies could produce it for $250, mining companies were cash machines. But gold does not go away and is largely useless.