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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (86804)	2/10/2001 10:10:39 AM
From: gamesmistress	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Tommaso, I agree with lots of your points, specificially: - Energy is where the money is (and will continue to flow, it looks like) - Natgas consumption is increasing, and production and delivery systems are not up to meeting the demand yet For a true bubble in energy you'd need a change in investor psychology. Energy would have to become the next Internet in terms of media coverage and small investor interest. It's possible, but if it does happen I don't think it would last very long. I think we're more likely to see steady, sustained growth in profitable energy companies, with bursts of interest in alternative energy, over the next few years, simply because of the money flowing into the growth and repair of the infrastructure. BTW, a friend of ours (an electrical engineer) did some calculating on what it would cost to install solar panels in his house and get his home off the electrical grid. He figured between $17 - $20,000, and his house is a small one and not optimally positioned for solar panels either. And people don't want to have to be engineers to get heat and lights, anymore than they want to have to be auto mechanics to drive a car. Just flip that switch! (On the other hand, if someone came up with a fuel-cell generator/furnace that you could buy at Home Depot, I'd take a look....)

To: Tommaso who wrote (86804)	2/10/2001 1:30:22 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Tommaso. Good sum of NG secular bull case. Have been of that opinion since the summer of 1999 and NOTHING has changed that IMHO. BUT that doesn't eliminate the large declines in portfolion value patch investors are facing in a major correction within that secular cycle which is only reasonable to expect during an economic recession. THAT is the point Bull, Slider and I have been trying to make here (most recently in a large number of posts a month ago AND last September) is that even in major secular bull markets that by definition last longer than one economic cycle there are large and potentially very dangerous corrections. As you know I'm holding some positions such as MWP and LOILY for LT gains because I consider them to be "special situations" as the term is used in the investment biz. Am also flexible enough to do a limited amount of ST trading in the NG E&Ps. So am not quite as bearish as Big Bull. Your strategy of concentrating your positions in NG royalty trusts IS more sensible than another player here who mistakenly thinks he can ride out a major correction while heavily margined in NG E&Ps. That kind of aggressive long positioning is where Bull, Slider and I all agree makes a patch investor most likely to suffer major portfolio losses and probably margin calls sometime during the months ahead. If we are wrong and NG E&Ps don't suffer a major price decline after this anticipated cold weather rally? Am sure we will be made aware of our error(G). But if our assessment of the risks are right? Emphasizing our views here will save a lot of $$ for those who sell into strength here and hold larger than normal cash reserves to repurchase their favs at lower prices after a decline in NG E&P stocks. If the OS stocks do decline, IMHO it will be to a lesser extent than "the gassers". Cheers Isopatch