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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (117318)	2/10/2001 1:45:47 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

>Hitler decided to invade Russia based on advice from his astrologer- maybe this is how Allen makes his invest decisions. ROTFLMOA! Yep, and Napoleons astrologer told him to invade Russia because it wasn't that cold in the winter.! Btw Billys astrologer keeps telling him to go to investment banker conferences all over America during the recession, and buy every tech opportunity he can get his hands on. Oh! Goldmans next tech conference has been cancelled, but they're going to set up a soup kitchen facility in Silicon valley.

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (117318)	2/10/2001 4:03:25 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

Victor, I want you to move out here to California. >Mercury News Technology Columnist No one with a heart wishes for a recession. Recessions inflict enormous pain on real people. They hit hardest among those who have the fewest resources to weather them. But no one with a brain pretends an economic downturn, an inevitable part of capitalism, doesn't bring some benefits. A recession, which wrings excess from the system, is part of the ebb and flow of a market economy. We haven't had one for almost a decade. We will have one again, like it or not. Maybe we're already in one. And maybe, in a sense, California and Silicon Valley need one. In a state and region where business and civic leaders have shown such relentless contempt for planning, a recession might be the only way we can get some needed breathing room. Maybe it's the only way left to maneuver through the cascade of crises -- energy, housing, traffic and more -- turning the once-Golden State into such a nightmarish blend of first and third worlds. We've been living at the margins lately, stretching the fabric of our institutions and resources here in the center of the long-running boom. As we've seen up close, prices skyrocket, shortages emerge and systems get strained when demand outruns the supply of energy, housing, highways, labor and everything else. A recession would undoubtedly slow the demand for energy. If you think the past few weeks of Stage 3 power alerts and blackouts have been bad, consider that we're not even in the peak power season. Barring moves considerably more adept than the ones we've seen so far from our political and business leaders, along with real conservation from the rest of us, next summer will make the current situation look like a stroll in the park. The Bay Area's fever in housing prices and availability may already have peaked, but the overheated market remains utterly out of the reach of normal people. A recession would restore some measure of balance, maybe even tipping it toward buyers for the first time in more than half a decade. A colleague tells me his commute time dropped by half during the last recession in California. The parking lots we call highways might become a bit less congested in a downturn -- for the people who keep their jobs, at any rate. That, of course, brings up the crueler reality of recessions. The majority of people may gain some abstract and real benefits, but they do so on the backs of those who suffer major-league pain. No one should minimize how hard life is for the unemployed, nor how demeaning in a society that in recent years has come to sneer at anyone who isn't rich or getting rich. A social and economic safety net is never so necessary as during a recession -- and we should be repairing ours as we speak. The vast majority of workers who remain employed lose in other ways. They lose leverage with employers, so raises and advancement become more difficult. They may end up in jobs beneath their skills. California's economy is part of the national economy, in any event. And the national economy is part of the global system. What happens elsewhere, especially in Washington, will help determine our future. Maybe a tax cut and lower interest rates will stave off a national recession this year, or next. It won't prevent one forever. But it's difficult to see how California and the valley in particular can continue on the path we've chosen. Even in the absence of a national downturn, what we've created is almost literally unsustainable. The energy mess, for example, might well trigger a regional slowdown no matter what else happens -- and that's assuming the OPEC oil cartel doesn't gain further leverage to squeeze prices higher should tensions rise, or worse, in the Middle East. Consider what may be the best case -- a substantial rate hike for electricity. This will extract money from household and corporate budgets, perhaps as much as any tax cut that might emerge from Congress. The worst case is routine rolling blackouts. If that happens -- and only a fool would rate the possibility remote at this point -- it would surely drive businesses and residents away in large numbers. The continuing decline in the quality of life for all but the ultra-rich, moreover, has tarnished Silicon Valley's attractiveness almost beyond recognition. People flooded into the Bay Area in recent years to be part of the technology scene. The potential for making big money wasn't the only appeal, but it was part of the magnet. The easy riches are gone now, if they ever actually existed, and the valley has lost some of its luster. California has enormous strengths, and the valley remains an engine of innovation and human energy. A downturn doesn't have to last long, and we can make it much less painful if we care enough about the people who get hurt. But we can't avoid it forever. And sometimes, postponing the inevitable just makes things worse.