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To: Sig who wrote (10042)2/11/2001 1:11:36 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
More Rules For Bear Markets

1) We are in a bear market and one should act as if we are, until proven otherwise.
2) Declines are very steep as are the bear market rallies.
3) When you are feeling good, do yourself a favor and take some profits off the table.
4) When you are feeling great, take a lot of profits off the table and consider taking some plays on the other side (reverse course, at least partially, or step aside for better opportunities).
5) If you are never feeling good, let alone great, your stock selections and/or timing is simply not the best. Consider stepping away for a while. The market will still be here a month from now, 6 months from now, and even a year from now. If you do not know what you are doing and why, or if you consistently ying and the market yangs "cash is king".
6) All the rules about "don't fight the fed", support/resistance points, as well as bottom calls from the "experts", have proven to be highly inaccurate at best. In freefalls, stocks are dropping through multiple levels of support at will, and in the Jan rebound rose as if there was no tomorrow.
7)Caution(taking profits sooner rather than later) and patience (waiting for a really good opportunity no matter what side you are playing), are the keys to good money management in these trying times. Waiting for "absurd values" (peaks if looking for shorts), a huge valley (if looking to go long), will dramatically improve your odds of success. Holding a huge position, either way, through earnings is risky business. You do NOT have to have a position every day! Let the market come to you.
8) Fear of missing a rally is NOT a good reason to buy, and is an extremely poor reason to chase.
9) All "breakouts" are suspect.
10) No one really knows where the bottom is. It all depends on how quickly consumer confidence restores and how quickly the inventory problems get worked off. Things may look bad now, but there are no fundamental reasons IMHO that they can not get worse. Perhaps we remain range bound between 2200 and 2800, or perhaps we bottom at 1800, or perhaps we have an extended bear market for another year and fall to 1600 or below. The fact of the matter is that it just really does not matter, if one is willing to pay attention to the preceding rules.

Bottom, Bottom, where is "THE Bottom"?
Does it matter?

Hope no one minds this soapbox tirade.
Comments anyone?

M