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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Smith who wrote (3110)	2/11/2001 3:49:14 PM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

The tital wave of new shares that might be created/issued will dilute the value of all the existing/old shares. I assume you mean tidal wave. In any event, Paul Allan's Vulcan Ventures and Wordcom own 87% of the company. There is no reason for dilution so that theory has been pretty much discredited. The real key is power. Most observers believe there is jockeying around for position between the 2 key players and a third party. The financing will come through on decent junk terms, probably with an above market warrant. (See,e.g., HSAC another VV company.) This is not a blue chip, we all know that. It's a risky venture. Bottom line if it works and survives, it goes to 50-100 in 18 months. If it doesn't, I lose 4 1/2 points. I like those odds. Wouldn't want to be short NOW. Price now is anticipating everything going wrong. Risk is on the shorts at least in terms of the range of possibilities. As for your comment about no short squeeze, you don't state any reasoning. Where you have a thinly traded equity with as much as 80% of the float short, even the slightest trickle of 1)short defections OR 2)longs taking shares away from being borrowed OR 3)decent news OR 4)decent sales OR 5)etc., will cause a short squeeze of massive proportions. Good luck though with your neutral position.