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To: JRI who wrote (67017)	2/12/2001 7:41:32 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

the guy from '82 must be Hans Krankl then. you have a point regarding rates. however, when disinflation bubbles burst, rate reductions are usually useless. the question is if we really are at that stage already. after all, it could be argued that the broader market has merely suffered a correction - the bear market was confined to the NAZ so far.

To: JRI who wrote (67017)	2/12/2001 7:56:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<I do agree that inventory overhang is the main problem here, but I am not so easy to dismiss the cumulative effect of massive coupon/repos action...the Fed, Greenie, seems pretty determined here to sacrifice the inflation alter for growth...>> OK, I'll bite. BubbleBoy is gonna hyperinflate us out of this debt trap infested overstocked malinvested mess that's resulted from negligent central bank oversight over the last 15 years? And said hyperinflation is GOOD for equity prices? Let's set the way back machine for 1977, the last time this scenario unfolded. As you can see, inflation was starting an EPIC ramp (from 5% CPI in 1/77 to 14% or so in 1/80): stls.frb.org Ironically, it was oil and energy prices leading the inflationary charge then (much like today!) What's that you say? But at least unemployment will fall, reinvigorating the consumer and "saving " the market? Well, that did also happen in '77-'80: stls.frb.org BUT...let's see what happened to equity prices over that span. The SPX on 01/01/77 was 107.97....and on 01/01/80, (when inflation had almost, but not quite peaked) it was....107.94. Essentially flat for 3 years, while inflation raged away and ate around 30% of the value of the assets contained within. Not exactly nirvana for the bulls, dontcha think? (even though it DOES smell like Teen Spirit) chart.yahoo.com Got gold, and oil/gas royalty trusts (and maybe REITS)? Regards Patron