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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (42098)	2/13/2001 1:35:30 PM
From: herenow_2	Respond to of 70976

Briefing.Com comments on what expected from AMAT this afternoon. Looking pretty ugly. I'm waiting for a 35 entry point. Missed the low point last time - waited for 23 which never came. :02 ET Applied Materials (AMAT): 44 11/16 + 11/16: AMAT will report quarterly results after the close today. Because the company already issued a warning for the quarter, many would argue that today's expected bad news has already been priced into the shares. Not so says Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Analyst, Timothy Arcuri. In a note entitled, "The Worst Is Yet To Come Out," Arcuri contends that the company is likely to disappoint on all fronts. The original Q1 EPS consensus estimate was $0.74 on $2.9-2.5 bln revenues. After guidance, the numbers fell to $0.63 EPS on $2.674 mln revenues. Arcuri has a $0.64 estimate on $2.675 bln revs, but he cautions that EPS could be as low as $0.60 and orders are likely to fall in the $2.3-$2.4 bln range (vs consensus of $2.5-2.6) with more downside risk than upside. He also expects a number of order cancellations to affect backlog, reducing visibility and adding downside risk of 45-50% which he expects to be mitigated by the Fed's easing, thereby reducing downside risk to 25-30%. Forward guidance is expected to be hampered by a rash of 200mm order cancellations in January that will pressure margins as the cost structure was designed to accommodate $14 bln of equipment per year. Certainly the screeching halt across the board from the chip makers necessitates a near-term reduction in capital spending, but the longer-term outlook on the demand side, plus the Fed's easing bias, suggests a positive long-term view. Despite the massive 2H00 slide, even accounting for the cyclical nature of the business, AMAT shares still aren't cheap at current levels. The gap between AMAT's price and historical P/E has narrowed over the past three months, but historical graphs suggest that further contraction could ensue. Near-term we expect some weakness in the shares, however the long-term outlook remains favorable, and the next few weeks could provide long-term investors an opportunity to add to positions in this industry leader. - Matt Gould, Briefing.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (42098)	2/13/2001 2:20:04 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, The big question: Is the bad news we get later today priced in or not? I was going to sell some today if it hit 45 or so, but since it has pulled back so much, not sure now. AMAT warned when it was at about 52, so the bad news certainly could be priced in. I think what hammered Cisco after earnings was that too many were in love with the stock, I think the bad news should have been obvious to the pros at least. Are investors in love with AMAT?, not sure, but I don't think so. Also maybe the Cisco warning was too weak vs the AMAT warning was on target. Morgan is pretty good at managing Applied through both ups and downs. Maybe Chambers is just learning how to give bad news. Also Greenspan said today he did not think the slowdown would last that long. Another thing is that there is some support at about 42, last quote I got was at 42 5/16. Hate to sell at the bottom. Short term calls like this are quite difficult. I saw the Briefing.com comments in the post two before this one, but advice to sell would have been better at higher prices. Thoughts? John