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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (42134)	2/13/2001 7:01:54 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob, I got some dry powder. Your comment made me curious to see which Q had the lowest earnings in the last downturn. It was 4Q98 quicken.com Price bottomed Oct '98, which is the end of 4Q. stockcharts.com Gottfried I think the $treet needs a day or two to let it sink in.

To: robert b furman who wrote (42134)	2/13/2001 9:18:25 PM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I agree. I lightened up a little yesterday and today, in anticipation (and because I needed the cash) but am still long in a rather big way. Mgt projecting significantly negative growth, meanwhile (despite the cost cutting) they are carrying the essential infrastructure needed to achieve the $20 billion target. Seems pretty clear that there will be a couple of ugly quarters going forward, at the minimum. I don't think that its all built into the stock yet, either. But its equally clear that there will be a strong rebound when the cycle and sentiment turn, and it does seem like AMAT will be very well positioned when that happens. As usual, the tricky question is when the market will start discounting the turn. IMHO the stock will turn well in advance of any sort of clarity coming in the fundamentals, and I think that will happen before the end of the year. Maybe well before. Long and reasonably comfortable, but thinking of writing covered calls while waiting for the turn. FWIW