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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (69167)	2/14/2001 12:44:51 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Paul Cherney was thinking the same thing last night. ...I have been reluctant to mention the following two pieces of information because I had thought that the Fed's assumption of an easing policy would offset these technical conditions, BUT... during the entire sell-off since March, there has been only one CBOE end-of-day Total Put/Call ratio reading of greater than 1.00, that occurred on Oct. 18, 2000 and since then, the markets (NASDAQ and S&P 500) have experienced an additional downtrend, which has undercut price levels at the time of the over 1.00 reading. I am concerned that there is too much complacency and that there might have to be another hard drop in prices (NASDAQ) before the markets can move higher. There is another item of concern, the Investor's Intelligence percentage bulls, which hit 61.8% last week, its highest level in 14 years. If this is an accurate number then you have to wonder how many potential buyers are left to buy. I can tell you that during the past 10 years, I used to use readings of over 55 as a signal to myself to start paying close attention to signs of technical weakness because at those levels (% bullish advisors > 55%) there were few people not already invested so where would the new buying money be found? Some caution is warranted. businessweek.com