Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (39265)	2/14/2001 4:34:24 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The fact is that if the bubble had burst at the end of 1999 when the Naz had risen 85% in one year, we wouldn't have been able to know when it would happen. And in mid-1999 we didn't know a bubble of anywhere that magnitude was going to form in the last six months, so don't give us credit for getting in before the bubble. Indeed, knowing when to buy in at the bottom of a bubble and when to sell at the top of the bubble is not something any of us have any real talents at picking. However, as Mtnlady posted previously: stls.frb.org Looks surprisingly like the exact path the stock market took. Here is why I think Gorilla LTBH attitudes are changing. In 1999 Greenspan gunned the money supply in an almost unprecedented manner with fear of Y2K in his mind; then, even more drastically he cut the supply, again, in an almost unprecedented way. The result boom to bust in a matter of 6-12 months. In this environment it really is not fair to say LTBH is dead, or don't buy gorillas at any price, etc. While I certainly agree that one should not buy anything at any price, I just think the last 18 months have been unprecedented, largely owing to Mr. Greenspan. As we can now see from the money numbers, Greenspan is back to moderation. As such, overtime, as the market attempts to reassert an equilibrium, I think we shall see company fundamentals again take hold, and earnings growth + sustainable advantage (ie, tornadoes + high switching costs, architectural control, etc) again move to the forefront. This is because, absent extreme externalities, like the money pumping and then dumping that was inflicted upon us (both good and bad), what gorilla gaming is about is identifying fundamentals. No company in the history of the world has ever had stronger fundamentals then a true gorilla in the tornado. Tinker