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To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/14/2001 10:05:12 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Warp. Don't beat up on yourself! Listen. Am not being sarcastic or coy with you, OK? Saying you're "too stupid" to time important market cycles is just silly. Kodiak made a good post here about 2 months ago arguing strongly against such self deprecation. Most of the people I know who have some skill at calling important turns in the market and or specific market sectors have spent years of study and in my own case benefited from extensive professional training to develop that ability. To become a broker back in 1976, the major W.S. firm I went to work for put me through a demanding training program that lasted about 3 months. In fact, their training was widely considered to be the best on Wall Street at that time. In addition to lots of book work, and branch office orientation they flew us the NY HQ several times for special training classes taught a rotating group of top analysts, brokers, CPA and mgt types. Just one ex. Steve Shobin who taught the TA class is now head of Market Analysis for Lehman. And that was only the beginning. The guys in the TA dept, in particular, went out of their way to be available and helpful to brokers like me who wanted to lean how the market worked not just sell stocks to clients. Some of these guys were brilliant and had a huge impact on me. It wasn't unusual to brain storm with one of them on the phone almost every week. After 6 years of that, and working with hundreds of clients with a large variety of investment styles it's only reasonable to conclude I'd have an edge vs the average investor with 5 or 10 years in the game. Then working as a professional investor since 1986 refined and improved my portfolio management, risk control as well as the skill to understand and anticipate important trend changes. Look Warp. I'm a hack soccer player. Played a few years love the game and was a fairly decent player. BUT I don't beat up on myself because I don't play like one of the top pros who work individually with my two sons every week. One of the most unfortunate things I've noticed about this and most other web threads is the people who spend their lives as electrical engineers or doctors and think they're going to just show up and right away perform at a comparable level with a pro who's developed his expertise over an entire career. Kind of absurd? Yes IMHO it certainly is. But this is the kind of ego some professional people bring to the market and it's one of the reasons a great many of them loose it all eventually. So take it easy on yourself. If this were easy, we'd all be like Warren Buffett. Regards Isopatch

To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/15/2001 12:18:28 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 95453

Warpfactor - Many of these make capital equipment for telecom and/or parts for telecom. Telcom financing has been questionable (see this week's Business Week for part of the story) and there is a huge bandwidth glut with sharply dropping price comming. Both banks and the bond market don't like telecom any more. I think the Street.com has covered this to some degree, also Barron's (yes, Bearon's) Many of these stocks will go a LONG way down and not come back much at all, even 3 years out. The IAH ETF (internet architecure holdrs) has many of these. Position : Long IAH puts

To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/15/2001 6:20:40 AM
From: hitsoft17	Respond to of 95453

Warp, I would add ADCT to your list as a beaten down telecom supplier. They focus on the last mile of communications infrastructure. I expect a good trade here also in the next 30 days, I currently hold a full trading position. However I expect the tank to wash this one out also when it comes. Hitsoft17

To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/15/2001 8:15:57 AM
From: que seria	Respond to of 95453

Warp--nice list. I'd add CREE, SEBL, ORCL, BEAS, WIND. eom

To: Warpfactor who wrote (87230)	2/15/2001 10:14:12 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Warp, I think your list ought to include clrn, tfs, and kopn. In the semi-equip sector, I would add emkr, brks, asyt and mtsn, if brks ever drops again. For more risk and possibly more return, I would go to cdts, sagi and zomx. For lots of risk and "story" stocks; a category you did not include, I would include immr (tactile feedback), vlnc (a better battery if they can just mass produce it), mgi.to (great software but can't ipo in this mrkt and you have to buy them through a broker), pixt (a different display, but once again, they have to be able to mass produce them) and wavc (wireless internet company with good management and non-line of sight product but still ironing out the rough edges and trying to stretch the venture capital.) I wish I could say that I don't own any of them but I can only say that I don't own any of the safer ones. By the way, where I come from if a man tells you he is stupid, you sure as hell don't argue with him. We consider that a hint to get invited to a poker game. gg. Ed