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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2176)	2/16/2001 12:31:41 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

Mike, it's an interesting idea, CMRC and JNPR may make the most sense, but maybe a basket approach is worthwhile. I'll look into the numbers a bit more. I'd be interested to hear what others have to say about this. John ps. do you think that Venter of CRA will win the Nobel Prize, I've heard several mention that he could/should?

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2176)	2/17/2001 12:45:32 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

Mike: I'm not quite sure what your downside risk is so I won't comment on your idea. I always know if its too good to be true (50% return over 2 years) it is (so there must be some risk here). I know everyone thinks we have put in a NAZ bottom and we may have but I still think if we are in a recession (still too early to tell, although for now we are having negative growth in the telecom equipment, non aero space related manufacturing, and auto areas) the naz will see much more of a multiple correction as the e continues to drop. I'm still not in a LTB&H mode. It seems like every time I set a good entry target the stock drops at least 20% below that level (not yet on imnx). I do think we are close to an intermediate term bottom but we need more fear. Right now (just from friends / clients) they are not pulling money out of tech accounts but not allocating new funds to this sector (they still save by putting money into the market). I turned into a momentum investor and even picking low entry points hasn't been wise so who knows. In reading many different people the mid range consensus is we bottom soon (time wise and maybe point wise, the 2250 area holds) in the naz and should rally to the June time frame before the next leg down kicks in. Now one can never time these moves so being in a little early and out a little early seems ok. Getting in early can be costly if we break the recent naz bottom. Getting out early can mean lost profits but while that was an issue in late 98 and all of 99 I'm not sure if were back in that mode yet (fed easing or not). On your selected stocks: I don't like SCMR long term. I like CMRC long term BUT the jury is stil out on its long term business model. I still put this as a story stock although many chapters of the story are panning out BUT in the near future it needs to become profitable (mgmt projection for the 3rd qtr). I still question its ability to grow revenues in 50% range 2002 (from 900M in 2001 to $1,350 to $1,400). It will also have to reign in costs at some point. Now lets see if it holds the $23 area or retests $16 area. The others look fine as companies. Valuations are a different matter. Again it all depends on the market. I'm still thinking the time to go long for a few months soon but the best buying opportunity is still months away. Just some of my thoughts. Tim