Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (48962)	2/15/2001 6:09:26 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi Bambs, I almost covered my Crisco short this morning, but I'm too damn stubborn. -ggg- Like I've said for some time now, low interest rates aren't going to help near bankrupt CLEC's with failing business plans. Cut 'em to 1%, or even 0%, and still no one will loan them money. I think NT just gave us a heads up on this. chic

To: bambs who wrote (48962)	2/15/2001 6:16:17 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

re earnings recession: You're right, we are in for a time of lower earnings, and lower earnings growth. But stock prices are a function of earnings and interest rates. As long as interest rates and inflation stay down, the (stock) market won't be in trouble. We've had periods in the past like this, with mediocre earnings and falling interest rates, and stocks usually go up in that environment. My take is that unemployment rates will inch up modestly, ending the year at about 5%. This historically low unemployment rate will keep consumers consuming, and allow them to handle their debt loads. Business, too, will see good enough demand to maintain margins and handle their debt loads. At the margin, the undercapitalized, poorly managed concept companies will go under, but the world will not come to an end. And the Nasdaq will be up for the year, maybe 10-15%. So, although I sold my long CSCO position and initiated a AMAT short today, my overall stance is cautiously bullish. JS@feelingforthefloor.edu

To: bambs who wrote (48962)	2/15/2001 6:20:16 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

yeah, this should start to get reel innarestin. is NT just more honest than other cos? they seem to be the first to say the picture's lousy into q4...

To: bambs who wrote (48962)	2/16/2001 8:19:09 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Well, it's starting to look like we might have a real recession before we recover. I think the Fed moved too strongly last year. That last .5 hike in July/Aug '00 did us in. So it cracks me up that they are still talking about a soft landing. The truth is we are in the midst of a hard as a diamond landing. Only that diamond turned out to be a cubic zirconia. LOL. We probably won't see a pull out until first or second quart of 2002. So my conclusion is that if you have cash on the sidlines, like I do. It might be a good idea to wait until the shit hits the fan some more in April. Then you are going to get the mother of all buying opportunities, if you are a LTBH. Because I think we'll trade sideways for the rest of the year as the Fed and Congress battle the impending recession. Then we get our recovery next year and your purchases in April will start to look good. If you don't have that kind of patience, then you can trade the sucker rallies like mad. I for one am looking to buy some more BRCM now that it is finally getting into a price range I really like. Good luck all! The next year will try us terribly, but if you hang in there and avoid margin, we'll all be ok.