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To: isopatch who wrote (87470)	2/16/2001 2:50:47 PM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Raised some cash by covering my WFT short 12:30 or so around its low. RIG NE SDC have been doing well most of the day. Have raised my stops behind partial of RIG, NE SDC.

To: isopatch who wrote (87470)	2/16/2001 3:40:56 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

GOLD +14%, NEM +7%, HM +6% Short: CIEN - 5.5%, PPRO - 9%, AMZN - 6%... OSX, XNG & XOI all flat to + 0.50 % ... Michael Happless - your "bad" timing is becoming legendary. The next time you ankle-bite; I double down in whatever move I've made that you criticized. I doubled my Gold's on O'Neill's commentary on the US Dollar and the Iraqui news is gravy... but; the Israeli elections do not portend for Mid East Peace fwiw... and maybe Saddam will have a little "welcome wagon" present for GW here as well... The single best idea out here today; is nothing to do with NT, or tech's continual downward revisions industrywide & the soon to come realization that prior growth rates are unsustainable due to the "blip" in Cap Ex spending $ available from the IPO boom, Y2K invesment & the capital market's reckless credit expansion - but; rather it is O'Neill's pronouncment that the US will NOT maintain Rubin & Greenspan's "Strong Dollar" interventionist policy... ie: quote/unquote - that a strong economy has as a "natural" (keyword there) byproduct - a strong national currency. The intervention & manipulation derivative games are over & the must end - if US Corporate profits are to be pulled out of a recessionary abyss and to keep the US Auto Sector from literal freefall. Gold is a tremendous opportunity here... I'm not recommending anyone make a portfolio weighted bet as I am; but I would certainaly recommend a strong hedging/value weighting in this environment. 10-30% is NOT unreasonable in times like these ~ "Q" - you had the first post here today that I agreed with in quite some time (VBG) - you are "right on" about this cycle playing out before. Once Again: It may not be "as" true as it once was - but; as the US Auto Industry goes - so goes America... You can NOT have a collapse of a core MFG Industry that still employs 1 in 7 Americans without taking consumer sentiment to the new lows. Do yourself a favor people; go online, or get newpapers from "middle America": Ft. Wayne, Indiana Peooria, Ill. Colombus, Oh. Grand Rapids, Mi. ....these "All American" posterchild cities - which are NOT rust belt - "old economy" cities - but; who have modern & high tech Industrial Mfg' plants and whose economies are seeing roll over here & a collapse of consumer sentiment. Manhattan's upper east side, or San Jose California is NOT reality - Grand Rapids Michigan, or Ft. Wayne Indiana, or Colombus Ohio - "THAT" is reality for the US consumer. Also; I have super connections in the Mortgage Industry with a couple of Nationwide Lenders - here is a wakeup call: This Fed Rate Cut induced Mortgage ReFi-Boom" is DIFFERENT than that of the last cycle. The last cycle was "cash out" to buy Auto's, add room additions & home improvements and to buy toys, or even invest... "THIS" cycle is about paying off excessive debt - there will NOT be the same amount of consumer spending coming out of this Refi-Cycle - this is allready an acknowledged given within the industry. Consumer Sentiment is going to fall off a cliff here: 1. Negative Wealth effect from Stock Market weakness 2. Huge increases in Energy Bills the equivalent of of a doubling of property taxes in many locales. 3. Tax Time coming upon us 4. Corporate Layoff's of the 10,000 Job variety are daily headlines; Wards, Motorola, Goodyear, Chrysler, Dell, Nortel... The US consumer has no savings - in fact has a negative savings rate, is debt laden and is now scared. The amount of Cap Ex Spending in Tech that will never come back - that was the root of the entire "bubble" is what is slowly coming to realization here - growth rates are generated by Cap Ex spending. Growth Rates must come down & market multiples will contract. Going, going, gone... are the days of 275 PE's & 28 x Sales multipels FOR ANYTHING ! - CIEN, or JNPR - it doesn't matter... this was a valuation multiple blip that was created by a too perfect storm for liquidity & credit and the bubble has burst. Gone are the days of all these telecom/cable/fibre network IPO's - all with $3-$10 Billion of Cap Ex $ to throw at the Tech Sector, gone are the Pet.com advertising IPO $'s etc. Tech is still over-owned here... some tech stocks may well have bottomed and may well be over-sold here; but many "names" are not even close... There is still a lot of pain yet to come imho and the "MOABO" is worth waiting for imo...and it looks more likely with every given day - that we're going to get it. Techland is not laying off 10,000 people at a clip for a 2 qtr turnaround people... No one is giving confident guidance for the 2nd half & no guidance is the rule; not the exception. "Commericals" will NOT be long - without guidance; Fundies may continue to invest "YOUR" OPM money; but not theirs... the Street hates uncertainity and they're getting a 7 course meal of uncertainity here. CNBC is correctly questioning the validity of the "ARMS Index" calling "yet another" bottom here - as the same "bottom" calls were soon followed by lower bottoms a couple of months ago ...How many times is Lucent's bottom going to be called ? NT ? CSCO ? CIEN ? the SOX ? I think most people recognize a total capitulation washout - when they see one; and feel that is the "Truest" indication of a real bottom. We've not been close to seeing real capitulation selling, literal dumping; as we had during the LTC crisis in Black October of 1998 - we have NOT seen that type of washout... One can catch DCB's in these environments; but one day the expected DCB is going to turn into a capitulation freefall & that is what I want to see. I do NOT see any sustained turnaround with the absence of guidance from techland and the layoffs & corporate cutbacks are just starting... that will continue to hammer consumer sentiment for months & consumer sentiment IS GDP - take out the Old Economy MFG sector and consumer spending & the market will continue to contract. There will surely be some DCB falling knives to catch here; but there may be more stocks that become the next NT...