Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (87483)	2/16/2001 4:07:54 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

ild - re: tech ild; I began an "average in" - slow entry into tech; because I began to think that the sheer volume of money in this market and what appeared to be the invincible "buy the dip" mentality out there; that given we NOW had 2 .50bp Fed Cuts at our back; that perhaps there was just so much money & so much "buy the dip" sentiment that one had to get in here; or miss the tech boat... I changed my mind & did so at little cost - thankfully. The recent comentary out of Techland Earnings reporting has just brought home to much negative reality - that this is NOT going to just be a 90-120 day inventory correction tech speedbump - quite the contrary actually. Bottomline - there is not and will NOT be; the amount of Cap Ex Spending $ in Techland to sustain the growth rates we just encountered over the last 18-24 months. Look at the investments made in Y2K alone, the nature of this IPO boom - that everyone - literally EVERYONE now acknowledges was a blip and will NOT be repeated. It's about valuation multiple contractions here - because growth rates are coming down and will continue to come down and perhaps most importantly; that no one has a handle on how far & how fast and for how long - they will come down & that they "AINT" going back... Bubbles fundamentally need - for everyone's benefit; a true classic washout capitulation finale & we are begging for one here... and the market usually gets what the market wants - so why stand in front of the Train here - especially when you have to do it "blindfolded" - because of no guidance ? I've just decided that I'd rather be "Throwing Knives - than trying to Catch them here". Oil is still a tremendous opportunity here; but per BHI's & other co CC's here of late; we are NOT in any danger of missing any fundamentally supported breakout here & in fact; the danger may be in an over-reaction in the commodity markets to a slowing economy - which will lead to an short-term & near-term over-correction potentially. There is very little that is a compelling buy here in the Oilpatch - yes; NR & PGO look cheap, the drillers based on 2002 numbers still have 35-50% upside potentially; but this was, is and will allways be - a cyclical sector first & foremost & the oilpatch is NOT a sector that can go to new highs in a weak broad market and headlong into a slowing US economy - it can not and it will not. I do not "like" Gold here - I LOVE Gold stocks; I am patient & opportunistically optimistic on Oils; but I refuse to give back anything off of any rally legs here. Taking profits into strenght & utilizing trailing stops & heeding the technicals are a pre-requisite to mature cycle success in cyclical sectors. I have a feel for the ebb & flow of the Oilpatch tape - I don't for Tech. The "feel" says ring the cash register here in the oilpatch - and it isn't a difficult call imo. Patience seems to allways be exponentially rewarded in times like these - buying the falling knife, buying off the ARMS index trigger is too easy, too predictable - and too old this time imo. SUNW expected to add another nail to the Tech coffin when they report... it aint over & the Fat Lady sure as hell "aint" sung yet imho.... Gold, Cash & Patience & short the tech weakness while they are on the run & they ARE on the run here... Call me Sitting Golden Bull ~ and Oil will gives us another re-entry opp - we aren't going to miss anything by taking profits & being patient in the Oilpatch - still plenty of time & as XOM's Raymond said - " a month is a longtime in the Oilpatch"... and literally; a helluva lot can change in a month - we've moved 50% in both directions within 3 weeks in the OSX in the past - and that's a lot of "Chee$e" people... I think we need and should really want - a NAZ 1600-1800 "classic" capitulation bottom washout and I think we are going to get it.

To: ild who wrote (87483)	2/16/2001 4:09:43 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

your comment that the "overall stockmarket is still overpriced" brings me to the idea on the thread that there are only two markets...energy and tech. MO, CHTR, MAT, AA, LYO are all doing very nicely and cover a fair breadth of sectors and still don't seem particularly overpriced. With regard to ADCT, if you know the company very well, I will defer to your judgement, but 2x sales seems a bit draconian. Likewise your single digit levels on intc and csco. Short of a cataclysmic event, don't you think expecting to buy them at 1x single digit long term growth rates is either rather black or wishful thinking? MT