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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (9861)	2/16/2001 4:43:22 PM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14638

Ian ---Thanks for the feedback --in response: 1)NT would disagree on it not being below zero growth when revenue decreases 25% in a qtr 2)Inflation at the PPI today was up but that was hopefully temporary . The inflation increase the FED was fighting that started this downturn was that in 1999 CPI was at 2.7 % and in 2000 the CPI was 3.5% ---all of the increase due to energy prices . The real problem it that the counter balance to the inflation threat ---productivity has dropped from a 4.5% rate to 2.5% ---thus we have stagflation which to me couple with a recession is the worst of both worlds 3) Employment numbers are getting ready to take a large jump ---January had the largest announce layoffs since January of 1993 . Worse yet most were in the manufacturing where the highest paying jobs are located . The old rule of thumb use to be for each manufacturing job 10 services jobs were lost supporting that one job . Do not know if that rule still applys with today technology 4)The FED or Greenspan admitted Tuesday before Congress he did not have a good handle on the economy with what is happening in manufacturing . The real items to me are the following are : He does not see a recession on the horizon but the stock market sure does ( I feel the same way ) 2) He has effectively wipe out the one counter balance that even he has admitted that has kept inflation at bay ---productivity . By drying up liquidty and raising interst rates he took his best ally out of the equation I totally agree with you about the lack of vision by industry on when growth will return ---until then the FED needs to repsond especially with liquidity . Technology creates a productive society which provides a strong currency for us all and a better stanard of living . One last point Ian from what I have been seeing it is a lack of demand not oversupply that is effecting the economy . The FED in its perverse way controls demand . BEST WISHES BILL