Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (85570)	2/16/2001 4:58:21 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

i note your horizon has now expanded from 8 to 50 years, LOL! i see it differently: there are times when it is a good idea to be in the market (when it is reasonably valued) and times when it's a good idea to be out of it - like now for instance. naturally, i don't subscribe to the idea that the market is efficient or can't be timed - it isn't, and it can. and there ARE simple historical yardsticks that can tell you when to be in and when to be out, like Tobin's Q and the p/e. note these comments are directed at long term investing - trading is different. you will find out that in secular supercycle bear markets the DCA strategy is a poor one compared to compounding interest in t-bills or bonds. it will be very trying psychologically, because you'll be losing money. look at Japan, which is the current modern-day example for a supercycle bear: its market is at an 11 year low! if you tell your story to someone in Japan, he's going to break into roaring laughter!