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To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 9:47:29 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

You're trying for cool post of the day, aren't you?...(And you should get it by the way.) The U.S. needs a strong buck to maintain the foreign capital flows that support the mind-numbing trade deficit, the staggering current account deficit, the bloated bond market, the treasury market, and the stock market. If the buck weakens significantly, the trickle of "repatriation" already in evidence, will become a torrent in a heart beat and there goes the balloon. Offshore investors have demanded an increasing premium to lend to the U.S. (and for obvious reasons) and they have no reason to take less. Allan is between a rock and a hard place and knows it. With this in mind when do you think they wire O'Neill's jaws shut?

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 10:01:21 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

A most excellent summary Sir Earlie. The latest mantra I note is "All the bad news is out." I have read this now probably three weeks in a row, having seen the phrase pop up now and then this past fall. No folks, the bad news will keep coming. This is not what I hope for -- hope has nothing at all to do with it. I do not relish the notion of hard times for the wealthy West, but I know it's too late to seriously consider anything else. In the meantime, I hope to be nimble enough to catch the middles of countertrend rallies, because some to come will be magnificent. By the way, I have spent the last few hours reviewing the weeklies and I am truly surprised to see how bad they are. i really thought the damage was not too bad in that timeframe.

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 10:02:17 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

one and more of your key points has already been put to rest.... layoffs are being replaced by efficient enterprise software!!! inventory builds are being adjusted better than expected due to more efficient production and control processes.... as to credit....no lie.... i received 4 credit card offers in my mail yesterday!!! and if i need it, there's more where those came from..... take that you bear you!!! <vbg>

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 11:36:10 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, Would like to hear your opinion on this question: #reply-15367558 My opinion is that from now on SP500 will accompany NAZ in this wonderful slide. Thanx - ild

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 11:53:35 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, How do you see US high tech industry without stock options? Unless cos start giving put options. -G- I know a company which instead of raises last year gave all employees stock options at low price. I think it was very smart move. Stock price was high, shareholders were happy, so why not let shareholders pay the employees directly.

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 2:35:27 PM
From: Terry Maloney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, great post! I particularly liked your coinage of the term "Joe Five-pack", a very concise summation of the coming consumer retrenchment. <g> Best, Terry

To: Earlie who wrote (68895)	2/17/2001 3:06:52 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Another fine post Earlie! I had a good week also. After considering the charts a bit last night, I don't think we're done with down, for a lot of the reasons you pointed out. In addition, the PPI number could have HUGE implications for the Fed's willingness to increase money supply with abandon. Inflation is not dead, it just came back from vacation and its ready to go to work on the economy! The consumer is tapped out, worried and pulling back. The reason sentiment fell off a cliff is that J6P KNOWS he's in debt up to his eyeballs, much more so than when going into recessions in the last 30 years (including '73-'74 and '80-'82). As Doug Noland pointed out eloquently in yesterday's Credit Bubble Bulletin, it is absolutely stunning to see mortgage refinancings (in which equity is being pulled OUT) and the subsequent increase in debt issuance zoom to the stratosphere even as other economic indicators (and other lending activities) plummet. A true sign and a warning to all who will listen. I've rethought my "asset allocation" a bit. I think IF we don't bounce immediately on Tuesday, there's even a small chance of an unmentionable event occurring. Very important to have some kind of crash insurance in place, I'm looking at OOTM index poots, and already have a fairly large Dow poot position in place. If we bounce, I have no doubt it will be brief and could be ended as soon as the next set of CPI numbers come out on Wednesday. It's certainly no time to be loading up on kinky tech....but I've noted increasing vulnerability in traditionally defensive issues as well. Drugs, for example, are not cheap (and SGP's mini-crash should serve as a warning to those who want "defensive at any price). CAG also got blasted, largely due to an energy related profit shortfall. I think we may be "broadening out" to the downside here, 2nd quarter warnings period is right around the corner, and the PE on the S&P is at 24. I agree that corporate indebtedness will be a major point of weakness to attack, a la Lucent. The third stage of the bear is coming to a market near you (in your case, very near if you're Canuckistanian!) Regards and have a great weekend! Patron p.s. Very nice call on the opticals last week, you nailed 'em cold!