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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42332)	2/17/2001 8:22:04 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I doubt that you'll get hurt shorting AMAT. 1. You seem to be more disciplined than most about cutting your losses. 2. You understand that the probability of making money is only 3:2 even from the current price. 3. You have an excellent understanding of the company and the sector. I suspect some of the other AMAT shorts on this thread are a little less rigorous than you. Ian.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42332)	2/17/2001 11:57:21 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I believe your reasoning is correct. While AMAT has held up surprisingly well in the face of bad news, it seems the risk remains weighted to the downside over the short-term. (Perhaps last week's rise had more to do with short covering than anything else). Any increase in share price comes at the expense of a higher valuation. This will limit an upside move. With consensus expectations of continued slowing for at least the next quarter or two, it will take some significant positive news to get the stock to move up from here. I think the best that can be expected is for AMAT to remain at current levels until visibility improves. This suggests dead money and a trading range for now. AdvocateDevil