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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (2)	2/19/2001 1:02:43 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I believe that Naz 3000 is probably the top for the next six months or so, and that we will stay in a range which will be better for trading than investing. (2400-3000) The bottom I see is 2350. I would be fully invested in tech stocks now. If we break the old lows, I would add on margin in increments of 100 naz points as we fall below 2300. (20% margin at 2200, 40% at 2100, 60% at 2000, 80% at 1900 and 100% at 1800). I would start to sell at 2800 and be 1/2 out by 3000. I would never sell 100% of the stocks, but am willing to trade 1/2 of the core holdings in the 2400-3000 range. My logic is: 1. A fall below 2300 will not last long. 2. It is not possible to pick the bottom. 3. Cash levels are still extremely high. 4. The time to invest is when everyone is selling. It takes a strong stomach, but it will pay off in the long run. Jim

To: jim_p who wrote (2)	2/19/2001 1:18:23 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim, Your logic and mine are pretty much in sync, the only difference is one of caution and optimism. Tech may be the market leader in 2001, but 1) it will be based on their incredibly low starting point on Jan 2 and 2) the other markets may get shattered. I do agree that tech is the future and once we work out the kinks it will get rolling again. I have no idea when we'll see a Naz 5000 again but it may not be until we have a year which ends in a "4." I'm going to be cautious in any case because I always fear "The Big Irrational Event" (which see, LTCM) and want to experience zero risk of a margin call. Fwiw, I own LPTH to trade, and I think maybe NETA and INSP are worth owning at these prices. I don't have much interest in DELL or the other box makers, although an argument can be made that you should own ORCL, SUNW (which I do) and CSCO, INTC, MSFT as your core holdings in any tech portfolio. To me that sounds a little like the "you must own IBM" mantra from the 70's and 80's. Where do you see energy and, in particular, the OSX trading in the near, middle and long term? I still see the energy bull intact on a multi-year basis, subject to some pretty violent and nasty corrections. It's looking a little tired here for this run, imho. siliconinvestor.com A dip this time into the mid teens? Kb