Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan B. who wrote (5496)	2/19/2001 10:24:58 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

First of all, remember that several of the RBOCs such as VZ derive a significant part of their revenues from their wireless operations, and the prognosis for this side of their business is very good. For the local revenues, T1 and business revenues are down (CLEC competition), but over time, DSL revenue will kick in somewhat. Still, all RBOCs will need to use the telecom shakeout to get modern long distance networks. It is obvious that SBC + WCG will happen sooner or later. This leaves MFNX, TSIX, LVLT and GX, the last two being the most likely to stay independent. At current prices, WCOM would also be an easy buy for any one of the RBOCs. Let's not forget also that a lot of CLEC assets will also be soon available in BK auctions. I have also the theory that VSTR will be more than DT can chew. Their pride will want to see the deal through, but about a year from now DT will realize it can't afford it and will need to deleverage. DT's announcement that it will sell assets to retain its dividend just tells us that it will not survive long. You can't behave like a growth company (VSTR acquisition and paying through the nose for 3G licenses) and act like a stodgy old utility at the same time. So, I think VSTR will be for sale in a year or two. Either Nacchio or Ebbers (if WCOM is still independent) may be interested. So, while BT, FT, DT and T are likely to collapse, amazingly enough the RBOCs may emerge as well positioned survivors provided that they selectively move from defense to offense when the telecom crunch bites hard next year.